Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - USDJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPJPY and CHFJPY
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: USDJPY correction or continued uptrend?
EURJPY still range bound
AUDJPY broken key resistance, propelling higher
GBPJPY and CHFJPY still holding on above key supports
USDJPY has no strong resistance until its October 2022 peak at around 151.94. However, on the daily chart USDJPY seems to be forming a Rising Wedge like pattern. Combined with RSI divergence there are indications of a looming correction.
If USDJPY breaks below the lower rising trend line in the wedge a 0.618 correction to 146.45 is likely.
EURJPY still range bound between 156.60 and 159.75. Break out is needed for direction.
If RSI can get back above 60 threshold break out is likely to be to the upside. If that scenario plays out a move to 162.50-163 could be seen
The two vertical arrows indicate that if bullish break out EURJPY could move the same distance at the high-low distance of the range.
A close below 156.60 could fuel a sell-off down to 153 area as indicated by the declining arrow
AUDJPY After three failed attempts AUDJPY yesterday closed above key strong resistance at around 95.85. Following through today the cross is on course to test June peak at around 97.67 and the 2022 peak at around
For AUDJPY to demolish the bullish picture a close back below 95.85 is needed GBPJPY seems to be finding buyers above the key strong support at around 180.18. If the cross is being lifted back above 184.40 uptrend has resumed and a move to 186.75-188.80 is likely
First test is the 55 daily Moving Average.
A close below 180.18 will confirm a downtrend with down side potential to 176.25 CHFJPY support at around 161.80. Minor resistance at 163.90.
A close below 161.80 is likely to lead to a sell-off down to around 158.55. A close back above the 55 Moving Average CHFJPY is likely top resume uptrend with likely new highs above 166.58 Latest Market Insights
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