Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - USDJPY, EURJPY and AUDJPY still above key supports. Resuming uptrend?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: USDJPY still holding on above the Cloud area and above 146
EURJPY bouncing from key support at 158.55 and AUDJPY from 95.88. Both could be resuming uptrend
USDJPY failed to test strong resistance at around 149.75 and has since been sliding lower to the upper part of the Cloud just a few cents above the 0.382 retracement at around 145.54.
RSI still in positive sentiment with no divergence and USDJPY still above the 55 and 200 DMA indicating USDJPY could resume uptrend.
However, the 55 DMA is declining and USDJPY is below the 100 DMA suggesting the JPY cross could be caught range bound between 145 and 148 for foreseeable future i.e., next few days to a week.
If USDJPY is breaking below 55 DMA selling pressure could take it down to the 0.618 retracement at 143.52
A close above 148.80 is likely to fuel a rally back to 2022 peak around 152. Resistance at 148.80
EURJPY after penetrating support at 158.55 the Yen cross bounced back to close above. EURJPY also closed back above the Cloud and the 100 DMA.
RSI is still in positive sentiment with no divergence indicating that what we are witnessing is merely just a correction and EURJPY is likely to resume uptrend.
A continued bounce to resistance at 0.786 retracement around 161 seems likely. A close above 161 could fuel a rally to 163.32-164.21
A daily close below 158.55 could very likely force EURJPY to test lower rising trendline, possibly also the 200 DMA
RSI is still in positive sentiment with no divergence indicating that what we are witnessing is merely just a correction and EURJPY is likely to resume uptrend.
A continued bounce to resistance at 0.786 retracement around 161 seems likely. A close above 161 could fuel a rally to 163.32-164.21
A daily close below 158.55 could very likely force EURJPY to test lower rising trendline, possibly also the 200 DMA
AUDJPY dipped just below key strong support at around 95.80 and the lower rising trendline only to close well above, and above the Cloud.
RSI also closed above the 40 threshold.
A close below 95.80 will establish and confirm bearish trend
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