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Chief Investment Strategist
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Technical Update - USDJPY and EURJPY rejected at key resistance levels after bounce. Make or break?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
USDJPY has, on its first attempt, been rejected at the 0.628 retracement and resistance at around 149.42. Closing just above the upper falling trendline, there could be further upside potential.
However, the trendline is not a strong resistance, and RSI is showing negative sentiment with no divergence, indicating USDJPY could resume its downtrend.
An RSI close back below the 40 threshold could be the first indication of the bearish trend resuming.
However, if USDJPY breaks above 149.45, the bounce could continue to the 200 Daily Moving Average (DMA) and strong resistance at around 151.85.
However, the trendline is not a strong resistance, and RSI is showing negative sentiment with no divergence, indicating USDJPY could resume its downtrend.
An RSI close back below the 40 threshold could be the first indication of the bearish trend resuming.
However, if USDJPY breaks above 149.45, the bounce could continue to the 200 Daily Moving Average (DMA) and strong resistance at around 151.85.
EURJPY seems to be rejected at the 200 DMA and resistance at around 164.00.
A correction down to 162.30 should be expected. If EURJPY breaks below that minor support at 162.30, it could very well test minor support at 160.58.
A daily close below this level would most likely fuel a sell-off, pushing EURJPY down to the 157.50 area.
An RSI close below the 40 threshold would be the first indication of that scenario playing out.
A break followed by a close above 164 is likely to extend the bounce to the 167.40–168.00 range.
A correction down to 162.30 should be expected. If EURJPY breaks below that minor support at 162.30, it could very well test minor support at 160.58.
A daily close below this level would most likely fuel a sell-off, pushing EURJPY down to the 157.50 area.
An RSI close below the 40 threshold would be the first indication of that scenario playing out.
A break followed by a close above 164 is likely to extend the bounce to the 167.40–168.00 range.
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