Weekly FX Chartbook: Mega Week Ahead - Fed, BOJ, Bank of England, Australia and Eurozone CPI, Big Tech Earnings

Weekly FX Chartbook: Mega Week Ahead - Fed, BOJ, Bank of England, Australia and Eurozone CPI, Big Tech Earnings

Forex 7 minutes to read
Charu Chanana

Chief Investment Strategist

Key points:

  • USD: The Fed may find it hard to meet market’s dovish expectations
  • JPY: Volatility risks remain high with Fed-BOJ policy divergence in focus
  • GBP: Overbought positioning could be a risk going into close-call BOE meeting
  • AUD: Any hints of hot inflation can spur further RBA rate hike bets
  • CNH: Economic and tariff risks continue to escalate
Carry trading saw unwinding risks develop last week which sent Japanese yen higher, taking other funding currencies such as Swiss franc and Chinese yuan with it while high yielders Aussie and kiwi underperformed.
Our FX Scorecard saw Japanese yen and Swiss franc momentum surge higher than sterling, but turning negative again in the last two days. Momentum is NOK seems to be the gaining, followed by SEK.
The CFTC positioning data for the week of 23 July saw speculators cut the long positioning in US dollar further. Short positioning in JPY was covered significantly, as was in CHF. Longs were added to EUR and GBP, while net positioning in AUD turned to a short.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

Recent FX articles and podcasts:

Recent Macro articles and podcasts:

Weekly FX Chartbooks:

    FX 101 Series:

    Quarterly Outlook

    01 /

    • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

      Quarterly Outlook

      Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

      Althea Spinozzi

      Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

      Quarterly Outlook

      Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

      Peter Garnry

      Chief Investment Strategist

      After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
    • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

      Quarterly Outlook

      FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

      Charu Chanana

      Chief Investment Strategist

      As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
    • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

      Quarterly Outlook

      Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

      Peter Garnry

      Chief Investment Strategist

      The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
    • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

      Quarterly Outlook

      Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

      Ole Hansen

      Head of Commodity Strategy

    • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

      Quarterly Outlook

      FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

      Charu Chanana

      Chief Investment Strategist

      Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
    • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

      Quarterly Outlook

      Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

      Peter Garnry

      Chief Investment Strategist

      Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
    • Macro: Sandcastle economics

      Quarterly Outlook

      Macro: Sandcastle economics

      Peter Garnry

      Chief Investment Strategist

      Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
    • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

      Quarterly Outlook

      Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

      Althea Spinozzi

      Head of Fixed Income Strategy

      Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
    • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

      Quarterly Outlook

      Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

      Ole Hansen

      Head of Commodity Strategy

      Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

    Disclaimer

    The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website. This content is not intended to and does not change or expand on the execution-only service. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

    Please read our disclaimers:
    Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
    Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


    Business Hills Park – Building 4,
    4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

    Contact Saxo

    Select region

    UAE
    UAE

    All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

    Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

    Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.