Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
BREXIT day 1.215 - The day before the day
Steen Jakobsen
Chief Investment Officer
Summary: Day 1.215 since the Brexit - Will PM Johnson prevail or call an election by tonight?
Yesterday the Governments “meaningful vote” was thrown out by the Speaker. Late last night the WAB, Withdrawal Agreement Bill, was published and today is the 2nd reading.
What happens today: Two major votes
# Vote 1 – The WAB – Government expected to win…
# Vote 2 – ‘The Program Motion, PM” – here it is 50/50 if government will get support.
If #1+#2 pass the Commons moves to a 3rd reading where MP’s gets to attach amendments: Two such are expected: A Custom Union and 'Final Say' vote from Labour.
Saxo Bank view:
We stick by 50% chance of pass by October 31st, but there is now two other scenario’s likely: A General Election and further extension, plus of course a small but still realistic chance of hard Brexit if Downing Street insist on disrespecting Parliament.
GBPUSD- Hourly 1.3013/1.2951 – Buy/Sell Either side break – MACD turned down… Daily – clear uptrend in place..
FTSE – Range 7440 -7003 – react to break of either side….
GBP hourly:
GBP daily:
FTSE:
The Guardian: The second reading will be a good test of support, but even assuming it passes, the government’s difficulties could begin in the next stage of the WAB, when MPs can table amendments. Among amendments expected are ones seeking a customs union with the EU for the whole UK and one making approval of the Brexit deal conditional on a second refer
One Conservative adviser said pro-Brexit cabinet ministers and Tory backbenchers would never be able to live with a customs union attached to the bill, so it was “not going to happen”. The aide said this scenario would probably lead to renewed push for an election, with Conservative party headquarters still preparing for a pre-Christmas poll – regardless of whether the Brexit bill passes or not.
If any of these amendments are passed, it will not only require a departure extension but will effectively wreck the bill for the government. The most likely outcome then would be for Johnson to seek an election. However, if all the amendments fail then MPs will be worked flat-out to try and pass the necessary legislation for Johnson’s deal before 31 October.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
-
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...