Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Canada serves up an early-bird special
Michael O’Neill
FX Trader, Loonieviews.net
Summary: USDCAD is in focus on the rocket-fuelled rally that followed StatsCan's early release of its latest GDP print.
Someone at Statistics Canada goofed, releasing the December Q4 GDP report about 15 minutes earlier than scheduled. For FX day traders and scalpers, however, it was a lifetime – especially if they were short USDCAD.
The early bird gets the worm and today, it got the GDP scoop as well. Q4 GDP rose 0.4%, quarter-over-quarter, well below the 1.2% forecast and sharply lower than the 2.0%, q/q seen in November. Statistics Canada blamed lower oil prices and a 2.7% drop in investment spending for the weakness.
Today's Q4 GDP was expected to be weak, but this print ensures that the Bank of Canada will leave monetary unchanged at its March 6 meeting.
The early bird gets the worm and today, it got the GDP scoop as well. Q4 GDP rose 0.4%, quarter-over-quarter, well below the 1.2% forecast and sharply lower than the 2.0%, q/q seen in November. Statistics Canada blamed lower oil prices and a 2.7% drop in investment spending for the weakness.
Today's Q4 GDP was expected to be weak, but this print ensures that the Bank of Canada will leave monetary unchanged at its March 6 meeting.
USDCAD soared, rising from 1.3150 at 8:15 am EDT to 1.3238 as of 8:58 am EDT, taking out resistance at 1.3180 and 1.3205 in the process. USDCAD tested long-term uptrend line support, which came into play at 1.3120 today. It held. A decisive break above the 1.3240 and then the 100-day moving average at 1.3160 targets 1.3360 and then 1.3665. However, surging oil prices should limit USDCAD gains.
Wall Street is trading in positive territory, erasing all of yesterday’s losses. Prices were bolstered by the modestly positive risk-on sentiment seen in Asia and Europe.
“Get your motor runnin’, head out on the highway..." That’s what Elon Musk wants you to do, and he wants you to do it in a Tesla. And to make it more appealing, Tesla announced that the $35,000 Model 3 is available to purchase online, immediately. Tesla also said that prices of its other vehicles will drop about 6%. TSLA shareholders were not impressed and prices dropped 5.75% in early New York trading.
Wall Street is trading in positive territory, erasing all of yesterday’s losses. Prices were bolstered by the modestly positive risk-on sentiment seen in Asia and Europe.
“Get your motor runnin’, head out on the highway..." That’s what Elon Musk wants you to do, and he wants you to do it in a Tesla. And to make it more appealing, Tesla announced that the $35,000 Model 3 is available to purchase online, immediately. Tesla also said that prices of its other vehicles will drop about 6%. TSLA shareholders were not impressed and prices dropped 5.75% in early New York trading.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...