Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Chart of the Week: Challenger Job Cut Report
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: In the short term, trade war has a more limited impact than most expected, but the US economy is not immune to current headwinds. The monthly job cut report published by Challenger, Gray and Christmas provides an interesting insight regarding the effect of tariffs on the US labor market.
In the short term, trade war has a more limited impact than most expected, but the US economy is not immune to current headwinds. The monthly job cut report published by Challenger, Gray and Christmas provides an interesting insight regarding the effect of tariffs on the US labor market.
This report is published every month and provides information on the number of announced corporate layoffs by industry and region based on data provided by state labor departments.
What is interesting us today is related to the reasons given by employers to justify job cuts. In the latest report from July, tariffs were one of the top reasons. In fact, 1,053 cuts were announced in one month due to tariffs, for a total of 1,430 this year versus 798 in 2018. Without much surprise, manufacturers are being hit the most and this negative trend is likely to continue as new potential tariffs against China are looming.
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