Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Chart of the Week: CPB World Trade Volume
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: The latest CPB figures confirm a stabilisation in global trade growth.
Click here to download this week's full edition of Macro Chartmania.
Last week we received additional data about world trade volume when the latest CPB figures confirmed that global trade growth (in volume) stabilised at the beginning of the year. It was out at 0% year-on-year n January 2019 versus -1.8% in December 2018. The month-on-month rebound was quite strong, reaching 2.3% versus -.1% prior. This positive figure was widely expected by market participants as the Chinese New Year that started in early February is traditionally a strong boost to Asian trade growth.
We expect the stabilisation to be short-lived, as suggested by most up-to-date region surveys, leading indicators and the three-month moving average of CPB world trade volume in the chart below.
The next release of the CPB World Trade Monitor is scheduled for April 25 and should be oriented south as China’s slowdown hasn’t been stopped yet and concerns about the trade war remain.
Last week we received additional data about world trade volume when the latest CPB figures confirmed that global trade growth (in volume) stabilised at the beginning of the year. It was out at 0% year-on-year n January 2019 versus -1.8% in December 2018. The month-on-month rebound was quite strong, reaching 2.3% versus -.1% prior. This positive figure was widely expected by market participants as the Chinese New Year that started in early February is traditionally a strong boost to Asian trade growth.
We expect the stabilisation to be short-lived, as suggested by most up-to-date region surveys, leading indicators and the three-month moving average of CPB world trade volume in the chart below.
The next release of the CPB World Trade Monitor is scheduled for April 25 and should be oriented south as China’s slowdown hasn’t been stopped yet and concerns about the trade war remain.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.