Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
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Macro Brief: Plenty of US data but no paradigm shift
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: The latest print on the US economy delivered a surprisingly strong bounce in GDP. However, dig a little deeper and you'll find that the future isn't as rosy as one would think.
Yesterday’s US session was quite surprising with the publication of a stronger Q4 GDP than forecast by the consensus. It reached 2.6% in Q4 versus the 2.2% that was expected, slowing from 3.4% in Q3. It is rather a good print, but it certainly also confirms that the economic slowdown is only starting. Digging into data, non-residential investment held up quite well and equipment investment surged to 6.7%. As widely expected, the shutdown has a limited macroeconomic impact (sliced just 0.1% from quarterly GDP).
Today’s focus will be on a wide range of data, but none of these will be of great importance. Final February manufacturing PMIs in Europe and in the USA will be the main highlight but will mostly confirm the ongoing slowdown (which has already been priced in by the market).
Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (Federal Open Market Committee non-voter) is due to speak in Washington, but don't expect anything market-moving in his speech about the economic outlook and monetary policy,
Today's Calendar
08:15-09:00 – Eurozone Feb. Manufacturing PMI
08:55 – Germany Feb. Unemployment Change
09:30 – UK Jan. Mortgage Approvals
09:30 – UK Feb. Manufacturing PMI
10:00 – Eurozone Feb. CPI Estimate
10:30 – US Dec. PCE Inflation
13:00 – US Feb. ISM Manufacturing
15.00 – US Feb. University of Michigan Sentiment
Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (Federal Open Market Committee non-voter) is due to speak in Washington, but don't expect anything market-moving in his speech about the economic outlook and monetary policy,
Today's Calendar
08:15-09:00 – Eurozone Feb. Manufacturing PMI
08:55 – Germany Feb. Unemployment Change
09:30 – UK Jan. Mortgage Approvals
09:30 – UK Feb. Manufacturing PMI
10:00 – Eurozone Feb. CPI Estimate
10:30 – US Dec. PCE Inflation
13:00 – US Feb. ISM Manufacturing
15.00 – US Feb. University of Michigan Sentiment
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