Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Macro Digest: China fix USDCNY higher and totally ignore overtures by President Trump
Steen Jakobsen
Chief Investment Officer
Summary: The Chinese is ignoring all of overtures made by Donald Trump & fixed USDCNH at all time high this morning.
See article below the video
What: The Chinese is ignoring all of overtures made by Donald Trump and fixed USDCNH at all time high this morning and with 240 pips (See table below) - Again a big and important point considering that USDCNY/CNH is best gauge of real status of trade talks
Action: Sell rallies in equities - two strategies possible: 1. Medium-term: Sell on @market 7575.00 with stop/loss of 1 ATR : 175 points 2. Short-term sell market with stop/loss @7653 close
USDCNY Fixing – today’s fixing the biggest “devaluation” including the risk-off August 5 & 6th!
Lead story in Global Time: Why are Chinese brushing aside Trump's Tweets?
I have read ALL English version of Chinese newspapers....and here story from South China Morning post:
Considering all the President Trump talk of new talks/deal I haven’t found a single notice of this or even mentioning of contact which to me mean they ignore it and it’s very unlikely there is real contact as China condition are clear :
Tariffs must be substantially reduced or eliminated….
China have over and over said there are three (really four) conditions:
- The list of good China needs to purchase to reduce trade deficit must be reasonable
- Existing tariffs must be substantially reduced or eliminated – which makes September 1st & October 1st critical
- The text of the agreement must “respect China’s dignity”
- Removal of Huawei sanction
Source: Gavekal
Hence September 1st is still key date and of course October 1st – don’t forget either that October is the 70th Anniversary of China’s Communist Party, now is not the time for China to “fold” especially as President Trump continues to show his weak hand.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook
-
-
Quarterly Outlook
Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto... -
Quarterly Outlook
FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
-
Quarterly Outlook
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Charu Chanana
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo... -
Quarterly Outlook
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami... -
Quarterly Outlook
Macro: Sandcastle economics
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p... -
Quarterly Outlook
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ... -
Quarterly Outlook
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Ole Hansen
Head of Commodity Strategy
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...