Macro Digest: Forget the clean-sweep

Add to this a projected 10% drop in S&P 500 earnings from the Biden Tax plan as estimated by Bank Of America!

I have read hundreds of sell-side reports suggesting that a Democratic President is good for markets! But while the Fed can be expected to do what it always do, the Biden plan would reverse nearly everything that Trump did on taxation and deregulation to boost markets. But I will let the Hoover breakdown of Biden’s tax plan do the talking: Link.

The Polls are simply wrong (mathematically) – As resident quant Anders Nysten explains in our Q4 Outlook: US Election "...The typical polling margin is ±3% in state polls that can only ask a small subset of the whole population. Recent studies have shown that, when accounting for other possible errors such as the correlation between the state poll errors, the real-world margin of error should be twice as big. In practice, this means that some of the 2016 state polls would not have been able to call a winner within the uncertainty limits of the poll"

The shy Trump voters. Personally, I can see why there are good reasons to hide that you are a Trump voter, but let’s look at what one survey says:

What CloudResearch Found (link):

• 11.7% of Republicans say they would not report their true opinions about their preferred presidential candidate on telephone polls. 
• In contrast, just 5.4% of Democrats say that they would be reluctant to share their true voting intentions — roughly half the number of Republicans reluctant to tell the truth on phone polls. 
• 10.5% of Independents fell into the “shy voter” category, just a percentage point lower than how Republicans react to phone polls.