Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Macro Dragon: ECB & US Inflation Thu...
Kay Van-Petersen
Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.
(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)
Macro Dragon: ECB & US Inflation Thu...
Top of Mind…
- So we got ECB as one of the key events in regards to the known unknowns for today – the other two will be US inflation & the 30 year bond auction.
- As Althea flagged yesterday, investors were demanding more yield in the 10 year $30 billion auction yest compared to the previous one. The 30 year auction later today should be for $35 billion and the result will be known around 01:00am SGT.
- Dembik already dropped it like its hot on Monday, with his preview on the ECB that touches on a quite a few questions on our clients minds – including:
- What will be the main market focus?
- How will the ECB tackle the strong euro?
- Do you expect any insights about the ECB’s strategy review?
- How markets could react to the outcome of the ECB’s gathering this week?
- When will the Governing Council make revisions to its asset purchase program?
- What will be the main market focus?
- Here is the summary from the piece.
On Thursday, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank will meet to discuss monetary policy and the ongoing macroeconomic outlook. It will be followed by a press conference during which the focus could be on the strong euro. Later the same day, Christine Lagarde will also speak at a Bundesbank event, along with colleagues Jens Weidmann and François Villeroy de Galhau.
- Other: Overnight the US markets saw the first pop, following three consecutive days of pullbacks. S&P & Nas-100 clocked up at c. +2% & +3%.
- Oil, Copper, Gold, Silver & the Euro also saw upside – yet we are well within recent ranges across the board.
- Would expect the risk-on to feed across into the Asia session this Thu.
-
To Keep On The Radar Today
- JP: Core machinery orders m/m +6.3%a +2.0%e -7.6%p
- AU: MI Inflation Expectations 3.1%e 3.3%p
- EZ: ECB, IP data out of FR & IT, Lagarde speaking again post ECB meeting @ 01:00
- UK: CB Leading Index
- US: PPI, Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inv, Natural Gas, Crude Oil Inv, 30yr Bond Auction
- CA: BoC’s Macklem @ 01:00
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KVP
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