Log in Open account
UAE
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
Show more
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs, FX or any of our other products work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Show less
Macro Dragon: ECB & US Inflation Thu... Macro Dragon: ECB & US Inflation Thu... Macro Dragon: ECB & US Inflation Thu...

Macro Dragon: ECB & US Inflation Thu...

Macro 4 minutes to read
Kay Van-Petersen

Global Macro Strategist

Summary:  Macro Dragon = Cross-Asset Daily Views that could cover anything from tactical positioning, to long-term thematic investments, key events & inflection points in the markets, all with the objective of consistent wealth creation overtime.

(These are solely the views & opinions of KVP, & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations. By the time you synthesize this, things may have changed.)

Macro Dragon:  ECB & US Inflation Thu... 

 

Top of Mind…

  • So we got ECB as one of the key events in regards to the known unknowns for today – the other two will be US inflation & the 30 year bond auction.

  • As Althea flagged yesterday, investors were demanding more yield in the 10 year $30 billion auction yest compared to the previous one. The 30 year auction later today should be for $35 billion and the result will be known around 01:00am SGT.

  • Dembik already dropped it like its hot on Monday, with his preview on the ECB that touches on a quite a few questions on our clients minds – including:

    • What will be the main market focus?

    • How will the ECB tackle the strong euro?

    • Do you expect any insights about the ECB’s strategy review?

    • How markets could react to the outcome of the ECB’s gathering this week?

    • When will the Governing Council make revisions to its asset purchase program?

  • Here is the summary from the piece.

On Thursday, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank will meet to discuss monetary policy and the ongoing macroeconomic outlook. It will be followed by a press conference during which the focus could be on the strong euro. Later the same day, Christine Lagarde will also speak at a Bundesbank event, along with colleagues Jens Weidmann and François Villeroy de Galhau.

  • Other: Overnight the US markets saw the first pop, following three consecutive days of pullbacks. S&P & Nas-100 clocked up at c. +2% & +3%.

  • Oil, Copper, Gold, Silver & the Euro also saw upside – yet we are well within recent ranges across the board.

  • Would expect the risk-on to feed across into the Asia session this Thu.

-

To Keep On The Radar Today

  • JP: Core machinery orders m/m +6.3%a +2.0%e -7.6%p
  • AU: MI Inflation Expectations 3.1%e 3.3%p
  • EZ: ECB, IP data out of FR & IT, Lagarde speaking again post ECB meeting @ 01:00
  • UK: CB Leading Index
  • US: PPI, Jobless Claims, Wholesale Inv, Natural Gas, Crude Oil Inv, 30yr Bond Auction
  • CA: BoC’s Macklem @ 01:00 

-

Start-to-End = Gratitude + Integrity + Vision + Tenacity. Process > Outcome. Sizing > Idea.

This is the way 

KVP

Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3

Sandcastle economics

01 / 05

  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.

    Read article

  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.

    Read article

  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.

    Read article

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.

    Read article

  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.

    Read article
Disclaimer

The Saxo Bank Group entities each provide execution-only service and access to Analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Rules of Engagement and (v) Notices applying to Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Bank Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Bank Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Bank Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Bank Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Bank Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Please read our disclaimers:
- Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)
- Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-mena/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE
Products & pricing
Platforms
Accounts & service
General
Other
Legal

Trade responsibly
All trading carries risk. Read more. To help you understand the risks involved we have put together a series of Key Information Documents (KIDs) highlighting the risks and rewards related to each product. Read more

Saxo Bank A/S is licensed by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority and operates in the UAE under a representative office license issued by the Central bank of the UAE.

The content and material made available on this website and the linked sites are provided by Saxo Bank A/S. It is the sole responsibility of the recipient to ascertain the terms of and comply with any local laws or regulation to which they are subject.

The UAE Representative Office of Saxo Bank A/S markets the Saxo Bank A/S trading platform and the products offered by Saxo Bank A/S.