'Tariff Man' takes aim at automakers

'Tariff Man' takes aim at automakers

Macro 4 minutes to read
Michael McKenna

Head of Editorial Content, Saxo Bank

Summary:  President Trump is trying to halt the arrival of Central American migrants with a series of rising tariffs on Mexican imports. If the issue is not resolved before the June 10 deadline, it could weigh very heavily on US carmakers.


US president Donald Trump has expanded his “tariff man” mandate beyond China to Mexico, where he plans to apply a 5% tariff on all goods as of June 10 if authorities do not take concrete steps to halt the number of Central American migrants entering the US via Mexico.
In March of this year, over 100,000 asylum seekers reached the US’ southern border, with Foreign Affairs (a Council on Foreign Relations publication) claiming that most came from “El Salvador, Guatemala, or Honduras […] to escape gang violence, poverty, and lack of opportunity”.

According to CNN, the new tariffs could place major US corporate names in big trouble, as more than two-thirds of trade from Mexico consists of exchanges between US firms and their subsidiaries.

Today, Reuters reported that Mexico City is taking the threat seriously and has sent a high-level delegation to Washington to discuss the matter.

Speaking to press Sunday, Acting US Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney emphasised that “we intentionally left the declaration sort of ad hoc,” adding that “there’s no specific target, there’s no specific percent, but things have to get better. They have to get dramatically better”.

A crisis for carmakers

Although a vast array of goods from computers and personal electronics to agricultural produce and alcohol cross the US-Mexican border every day, the single largest sector placed in jeopardy by Trump’s tariff threats is automakers.
 
Mexican imports
According to Deutsche Bank chief economist Torsten Slok, “US trade with Mexico is basically all about cars”. With Trump claiming that he is ready to escalate the 5% tariff to 25% if Washington is not satisfied with Mexico’s response, Deutsche’s latest report forecasted General Motors taking a $6.3 billion hit before interest and taxes. Fiat Chrysler would see a $4.8bn impact and Ford would take $3.3bn.

Among Japanese carmakers, Nissan would be the hardest hit as exports from Mexico to the US account for about 25% of the company's US sales.

Mexican-made vehicles account for about 15% of US light vehicle sales, states industry research group LMC Automotive.

Key charts to watch

USDMXN spiked from just above 19.00 to 19.82 on the initial announcement, while GM shares dropped from the 34.75 area to 33.20. Long-term support dating back to 2012 sits at around 31.85 for GM shares; this could be a key level to watch as negotiations continue.
USDMXN
USDMXN (daily, source: Saxo Bank)
General Motors (daily, source: Saxo Bank)
General Motors (daily, source: Saxo Bank)

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Trader Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: The ride just got rougher

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Quarterly Outlook

    China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

  • Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...?

    John J. Hardy

    Global Head of Trader Strategy

  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...


Business Hills Park – Building 4,
4th Floor, office 401, Dubai Hills Estate, P.O. Box 33641, Dubai, UAE

Contact Saxo

Select region

UAE
UAE

All trading and investing comes with risk, including but not limited to the potential to lose your entire invested amount.

Information on our international website (as selected from the globe drop-down) can be accessed worldwide and relates to Saxo Bank A/S as the parent company of the Saxo Bank Group. Any mention of the Saxo Bank Group refers to the overall organisation, including subsidiaries and branches under Saxo Bank A/S. Client agreements are made with the relevant Saxo entity based on your country of residence and are governed by the applicable laws of that entity's jurisdiction.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the US and other countries. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.