Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Summary: Today, we look at December US jobs report indicating that the US is more or less at full employment as payrolls growth is anemic, but the unemployment rate continues to drop aggressively and average hourly earnings to rise steeply. The Fed will continue to feel that it is behind the curve and may have to step up more dramatically than the market is currently pricing, with yields now rising all along the yield curve. Elsewhere, we look at crude oil, commodity index rebalancing, softs, struggling vaccine maker Moderna as omicron may point toward a new phase of the pandemic, geopolitical concerns on Ukraine weighing heavily this week, upcoming earnings calendar and more. Today's pod features Peter Garnry on equities, Ole Hansen on commodities and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Listen to today’s podcast and have a look at today’s slide deck.
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