Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Head of Commodity Strategy
Summary: The latest EIA data led to some profit-taking in energy, but equity markets hold the key to crude oil's direction from here.
With the Opec+ group of nations doing their best to curb supply the demand side remains the key area of uncertainty. Consequently, the main focus and price driver at this stage remains macro-economic developments as seen through the performances of stocks and corporate bond yields. According to our calculations, the 30-day rolling correlation between WTI crude oil and the S&P 500 future is currently at its highest since 2011. On that basis, watch stock market developments more than anything else at this stage.
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
China Outlook: The choice between retaliation or de-escalation
Commodity Outlook: A bumpy road ahead calls for diversification