Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
January 2025 saw some major shifts in trading activity among Saxo Singapore clients. While tech giants like NVIDIA, Tesla, Palantir, and Advanced Micro Devices continued to dominate, some unexpected names surged in popularity.
Two of the biggest stories this month were again Rigetti Computing and SoundHound AI, which had been high-flyers in December but saw sharp declines in January. SoundHound AI dropped -28.7%, while Rigetti Computing fell -13.7%, as profit-taking and shifting market sentiment took hold.
Nvidia also saw a -10.6% drop, suggesting that investors may be locking in gains after its massive rally last year and the emergence of Chinese AI models like DeepSeek that deliver comparable performance at a fraction of the cost and diminish the barriers to monetize AI with their open source model.
Meanwhile, Palantir, Micron and Taiwan Semiconductor posted strong gains, rising 9.1%, 8.4% and 6.0%, respectively.
Beyond the most traded names, several stocks saw a dramatic rise in investor interest. We looked at the most traded stocks, which had more than 100 trades, and ranked them. Then we compared the ranks for this month to last month. This helped us find the stocks that jumped the most in popularity. These stocks indicate our clients’ shifting interests, momentum and their read of the markets.
Netflix led our hot stocks ranking as it reported monster earnings with a massive subscriber growth and increasing revenue from its ad-supported tier. Analysts have turned bullish, believing the company’s cost-cutting measures are finally paying off.
Tech interest also shifted to others like Oracle, TSMC, Arm Holdings and ASML.
TSMC reported strong demand for AI chips and significantly increased capex for 2025, although tariffs threats and DeepSeek competition has taken away some of the cheer. Meanwhile, ASML also reported strong earnings post-DeepSeek, highlighting how AI is still driving growth and reaffirming that cheap AI could be a blessing, not a curse.
Meanwhile, Oracle and Arm Holdings gained popularity due to President Trump’s Stargate initiative for strategic AI infrastructure investments, involving OpenAI, SoftBank and Oracle.
Intuitive Machines also captured attention with 31% gains as it secured new NASA contracts. The excitement around private space exploration has been building, and investors are taking notice.
Other mid-cap names like Oklo and Applied Digital were some of the other surprises on the list.
Oklo’s stock skyrocketed 96.0% in January and saw near 80% jump in trades by Saxo Singapore clients, fueled by investor enthusiasm for nuclear energy. The company secured a long-term power purchase agreement for its microreactors, reinforcing confidence in its long-term potential.
Applied Digital, a power and data center play, fell nearly 7% in January but saw a 50% jump in the number of trades.
Singapore’s banking giant DBS also saw a rise in trading activity, as investors sought yield amid volatile markets. The company is set to report earnings on February 9, making it one to watch.
The final name on the list was Novo Nordisk, which is now down 42% from its June 2024 highs, as weak drug trial results pressured sentiment in the obesity drug market.
The rise of China’s DeepSeek AI is shaking up the market, as investors question whether Nvidia’s pricing power can hold up. Meanwhile, AI hardware players like TSMC and ASML are proving resilient, even as software stocks like SoundHound AI struggle.
Oklo’s 96% rally and Intuitive Machines’ 31% jump indicate investors are betting on nuclear power and private space exploration as long-term growth themes.
Oracle and Arm Holdings gained steam, benefiting from Trump’s AI infrastructure investments, while Netflix surged on improving fundamentals.
The rise in DBS trading volume highlights investors’ search for stable income in uncertain markets. With its earnings report on February 9, investors are watching closely.
Will DeepSeek AI put more pressure on Nvidia and U.S. chipmakers? Will nuclear energy stocks like Oklo continue their rally? How will Singapore’s DBS fare in its earnings report?
With earnings season heating up, February could bring another wave of surprises. Stay tuned for next month’s update.