Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: AEX 25 rejected at key resistance several times.
BEL20 uptrend could be stalling
CAC40 performing new All-time highs almost on daily basis
AEX25 is struggling to close above resistance at 763. Uptrend is intact however, but if closing below 747 downtrend is likely to resume.
A close above 763 is likely to re-energize the uptrend with a likely move to 777.58 to follow. If closing above 777.58 the is no resistance until around 800.
BEL20 seems to be pausing at the 0.786 retracement just below the top of the cloud short of strong resistance at around 3,894. If closing at current level or higher RSI will close above 60 threshold thereby in positive sentiment. Uptrend will be confirmed with likely more upside to 3,962 in the cards.
For BEL20 to reverse to downtrend a close below 3,734 is needed. First indication of this scenario to play out would be a close below 3,790
CAC40 is performing new all-time high almost on a daily basis now. And it could go on doing just that for the next few weeks. A move to the 1.382 projection at around 7,632 is likely but 1.618 projection at around 7,775 is possible.
To reverse the uptrend a close below 7,300 is needed.