Quarterly Outlook
Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun
Peter Garnry
Chief Investment Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: As a follow up to the Technical Update video containing UYS stocks published last week here is an update on some of the Equities with the most interesting moves. Link in text below
Link to Technical Update US stocks video 20th Sept.: Cramers Corner Technical Update Global Equities
Alphabet GOOG C has broken bearish out of its rising Wedge pattern finding little support at the 55 MA with the RSI testing 40 threshold but there is no support until the Gap area at 127.85-125.70.
The 100 MA will offer some support around that level.
If RSI is closing below 40 the downtrend has been confirmed with likely lower levels to follow.
If closing below 125.70 thus closing the gap Alphabet could be hit by increased selling down to strong support at around 115.80
To resume uptrend GOOD C needs to close above 139.95
Amazon has continued its selling after forming Doji Evening top and reversal pattern. Broken below its lower rising trendline AND below first support at around 131.15
RSI is showing negative sentiment indicating likely lower levels.
Next support at around 126.11 and 120.58. But a medium-term downwards move to around 114.20 and the 200 daily MA should not be ruled out.
To demolish the current bearish picture a close back above the rising trendline is needed. Closing the gap would be the first indication of that scenario to play out.
To resume uptrend a close above the Doji Evening top at 145.86 is needed
Apple is in a downtrend but has paused somewhat above key support at around 171.
Apple could be range bound between 171 and 182 for the next few days before sellers are likely to take control.
Apple is trading below both the 55 MA, which is declining and the 100 MA: If the 55 MA is crossing below the 100 it would indicate negative underlying sentiment likely resulting in selling pressure to increase.
If Apple breaks below 171 a swift selling down to around 160 could be seen.
However, the 200 MA will offer some support. Minor support at around 166.60
Apple needs to close back above 189.92 to resume uptrend
Microsoft is close to testing key support at around 312.29.
RSI is below 40 ht4rshold strongly indicating the support is to be taken out. If that scenario plays out a swift sell off down to strong support at around 295-291 is likely
Microsoft is trading below both the 55 and the 100 MA where both are declining, and the 55 is close to be breaking below the 100 thus creating a Death Cross which is a bearish signal
To reverse the bearish picture a close above 340.86 is needed i.e., cancelling the Doji ‘evening Star top and reversal patternNvidia key support at around 401. A break below is likely to send Nvidia down to test the upper band in the big Gap area from May.
With the RSI showing negative sentiment. Adding to that, the 21 MA is close to be breaking below the 55 MA is a strong indication of underlying bearish sentiment since they are both declining.
However, a short-term bounce to around 440-450 could be seen before next wave of selling could hit.
For Nvidia to resume uptrend a close above 466 is neededTesla will resume bearish trend if closing below 242. If that scenario plays out it could fuel a sell-off down to strong support at around 214-207. The 200 MA will also offer some support around that area.
To resume uptrend Tesla needs to close above 279. If that occurs Tesla is likely to see new highs