Technical Update - Bitcoin to 100,000 ? Coinbase higher but mining companies under pressure

Equities 4 minutes to read
KCL
Kim Cramer Larsson

Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank

Summary:  Bitcoin to USD 90,000-100,000? If taking out its previous all-time high there are indicators pointing to those levels
Ethereum taken out key resistance could reach its previous all-time high just below 5,000
Coinbase share price is benefitting from the surge in Bitcoin and could move higher
Despite the surge in Bitcoin prices, Bitcoin mining companies have not experienced significant benefits: Marathon, Riot and Cleanspark


Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is currently testing the all-time high around USD 69,000 but has faced rejection. A daily close above this level could trigger another buying spree, potentially propelling BTC towards the 1.382 projection at around USD 100,000.

While a short-term correction is possible, the absence of RSI divergence on both daily and weekly charts suggests that Bitcoin is likely to ascend to higher levels in the coming weeks and months.

A close below USD 50,000 would demolish this picture
Source all charts and data: Saxo Group

Another analytical tool; Linton Price Target, utilising Point & Figure charting and Fibonacci analysis, suggests even higher Bitcoin levels.
Developed by David Linton at Updata Analytics, this tool points to elevated price targets.

As illustrated in the chart below, Bitcoin has already met previous price targets, with a new target now activated at 90,353.

Whether this target will be attained remains uncertain.
Please note: This is NOT a recommendation to buy Bitcoin, and achieving this price target is not guaranteed.
Additionally, this analysis does not address potential corrections; it solely provides a potential price target
Source: Upata Analytics

Ethereum ETHUSD has broken above resistance at around 3,525 and looks destined to move higher to its all-time high at around 4,870. A short-term correction should be expected, however.

RSI is indicating overbought but with no divergence on both daily and weekly charts are drawing a picture of ETHUSD moving higher after a likely correction
The magnitude of a correction is not easy to quantify until a top and reversal pattern is in place 

Coinbase (COIN): In a previous Technical Update on Coinbase, a Cup with Handle pattern was identified. Technical analysis Bitcoin Ethereum coinbase Marathon Riot Cleanspark
Coinbase has reached 50% of the distance from the rim of the Cup (193.64) at 233.20 and nearly the full length of the Fibonacci Extension at 239.79.

Further upside potential is suggested by the RSI indicator, with a potential target of 272.77, representing the full distance from the bottom of the Cup to the Rim.

On the weekly chart, Coinbase has reached the 1.618 projection at 242.43, which aligns closely with resistance at around 231.77.
A close above this level could lead to further gains, potentially targeting the next resistance around 282.

Conversely, a close below 193.64 would negate the bullish outlook, while a close below 180.60 would signal a trend reversal

Bitcoin Mining Companies: Despite the surge in Bitcoin prices,  Bitcoin mining companies have not experienced significant benefits. This could be attributed to the increasing expenses associated with Bitcoin mining, potentially impacting profitability.

Marathon Digital (MARA) has struggled to maintain upside momentum, failing to close above resistance at around 31.07.
Confirmation of a bullish trend would require a close above this level, with potential targets around the 40 level.

Conversely, a close below 22.67 would negate the bullish scenario

Riot Platforms (RIOT) has failed to establish and confirm a bullish trend, resulting in a bearish outlook in the short term.
Support is at around 13.00, with a daily close below potentially intensifying selling pressure.

Confirmation of this scenario would occur if the RSI closes below the 40 threshold.

To establish a bullish trend, a close above 18.75 is necessary

Cleanspark (CLSK) experienced a surge, reaching the 2.00 projection of the February correction at 23.46, only to face a significant pullback.

A daily close below 15.00 could see CLSK testing the GAP area between 13.02-10.50, with potential further decline below 13.

RSI indicates positive sentiment but also divergence, suggesting a probable move lower. Restoration of the bullish scenario would require a close back above 19.25
Author is holding a position in Marathin Digital

Quarterly Outlook

01 /

  • Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro Outlook: The US rate cut cycle has begun

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    The Fed started the US rate cut cycle in Q3 and in this macro outlook we will explore how the rate c...
  • Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Quarterly Outlook

    Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

  • Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equity Outlook: Will lower rates lift all boats in equities?

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    After a period of historically high equity index concentration driven by the 'Magnificent Seven' sto...
  • FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX Outlook: USD in limbo amid political and policy jitters

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    As we enter the final quarter of 2024, currency markets are set for heightened turbulence due to US ...
  • Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodity Outlook: Gold and silver continue to shine bright

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

  • FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Quarterly Outlook

    FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens

    Charu Chanana

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperfo...
  • Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Quarterly Outlook

    Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynami...
  • Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Quarterly Outlook

    Macro: Sandcastle economics

    Peter Garnry

    Chief Investment Strategist

    Explore the "two-lane economy," European equities, energy commodities, and the impact of US fiscal p...
  • Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Quarterly Outlook

    Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises

    Althea Spinozzi

    Head of Fixed Income Strategy

    Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain ...
  • Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Quarterly Outlook

    Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause

    Ole Hansen

    Head of Commodity Strategy

    Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities i...

Disclaimer

The Saxo Group entities each provide execution-only service, and access to analysis permitting a person to view and/or use content available on or via the website is not intended to and does not change or expand on this. Such access and use are at all times subject to (i) The Terms of Use; (ii) Full Disclaimer; (iii) The Risk Warning; (iv) the Inspiration Disclaimer and (v) Notices applying to Trade Inspiration, Saxo News & Research and/or its content in addition (where relevant) to the terms governing the use of hyperlinks on the website of a member of the Saxo Group by which access to Saxo News & Research is gained. Such content is therefore provided as no more than information. In particular, no advice is intended to be provided or to be relied on as provided nor endorsed by any Saxo Group entity; nor is it to be construed as solicitation or an incentive provided to subscribe for or sell or purchase any financial instrument. All trading or investments you make must be pursuant to your own unprompted and informed self-directed decision. As such no Saxo Group entity will have or be liable for any losses that you may sustain as a result of any investment decision made in reliance on information which is available on Saxo News & Research or as a result of the use of the Saxo News & Research. Orders given and trades effected are deemed intended to be given or effected for the account of the customer with the Saxo Group entity operating in the jurisdiction in which the customer resides and/or with whom the customer opened and maintains his/her trading account. Saxo News & Research does not contain (and should not be construed as containing) financial, investment, tax or trading advice or advice of any sort offered, recommended or endorsed by Saxo Group and should not be construed as a record of our trading prices, or as an offer, incentive or solicitation for the subscription, sale or purchase in any financial instrument. To the extent that any content is construed as investment research, you must note and accept that the content was not intended to and has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such, would be considered as a marketing communication under relevant laws.

Trading in financial instruments carries risk, and may not be suitable for you. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please read our disclaimers:
Notification on Non-Independent Investment Research (https://www.home.saxo/legal/niird/notification)
Full disclaimer (https://www.home.saxo/en-sg/legal/disclaimer/saxo-disclaimer)

None of the information contained here constitutes an offer to purchase or sell a financial instrument, or to make any investments. Saxo Markets does not take into account your personal investment objectives or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information nor for any loss arising from any investment made in reliance of this presentation. Any opinions made are subject to change and may be personal to the author. These may not necessarily reflect the opinion of Saxo Markets or its affiliates.

Saxo Markets
88 Market Street
CapitaSpring #31-01
Singapore 048948

Contact Saxo

Select region

Singapore
Singapore

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd ('Saxo Markets') is a company authorised and regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) [Co. Reg. No.: 200601141M ] and is a wholly owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, headquartered in Denmark. Please refer to our General Business Terms & Risk Warning to consider whether acquiring or continuing to hold financial products is suitable for you, prior to opening an account and investing in a financial product.

Trading in financial instruments carries various risks, and is not suitable for all investors. Please seek expert advice, and always ensure that you fully understand these risks before trading. Trading in leveraged products such as Margin FX products may result in your losses exceeding your initial deposits. Saxo Markets does not provide financial advice, any information available on this website is ‘general’ in nature and for informational purposes only. Saxo Markets does not take into account an individual’s needs, objectives or financial situation.

The Saxo trading platform has received numerous awards and recognition. For details of these awards and information on awards visit www.home.saxo/en-sg/about-us/awards.

The information or the products and services referred to on this website may be accessed worldwide, however is only intended for distribution to and use by recipients located in countries where such use does not constitute a violation of applicable legislation or regulations. Products and Services offered on this website are not intended for residents of the United States, Malaysia and Japan. Please click here to view our full disclaimer.

This advertisement has not been reviewed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc, registered in the US and other countries and regions. App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.