Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Trader Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
EURUSD is currently testing minor resistance at around 1.0852. If broken, a push to the 1.09 area is in the cards. The daily RSI is showing positive sentiment, and combined with the daily moving averages, there are indications that EURUSD will break higher.
However, if looking at the weekly chart, the 1.0916 June peak could be a harder nut to crack.
If EURUSD closes above that level, it has reversed the medium-term downtrend EURUSD has been forming since the beginning of the year. But the upside potential could be limited. EURUSD could be locked in between the declining 200 weekly moving average and the rising 100 moving average, likely limiting the upside to around 1.0980–1.10
However, if EURUSD manages to close above 1.0980, there could be upside potential to 1.11. If failing to close above 1.0852, EURUSD could slide back to the 1.08 level, possibly lower