Global Macro Strategist
Summary: Morning APAC Global Macro & Cross-Asset Snapshot
Latest Macro Monday: "Phase One" - here we go again...
(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations, nor advice of any-kind.)
Happy Macro Fri 18 Oct 2019
APAC Global Macro Morning-ish Brief – “Please, can you just please take my money?”
Totally nothing on markets today… not saying there are no opportunities… there are always opportunities…
Yet KVP finds himself in a “meh” frame of mind today… it must be TGIF! It may sound simplistic, but frame of mind is key.
Today we are more importantly spinning on life…
So the way this week has panned out, we may have to change the tag line to the Global Macro Noon brief… perhaps even, Macro Afternoon Nap…
But hey, when you are juggling multiple time zones its always morning somewhere. Kind of like your motivated alcoholic consumers, its always noon somewhere. The whole alcohol thing cracks me, talk about a paradox. Imagine if you were an alien visiting earth for the first time.
Non-Sapiens: “So let me get this straight, you are paying for the ‘privilege’ of ingesting poison? And you literally have entire industries with glamorous packaging & exuberant pricing on liquids that in essence are toxic to your body not to mention lifestyle & relationships”
Sapiens: “Totally man, vodka redbull & whisky sours baby!!!!..... And that’s nothing… check out this all you can eat buffet for $4.99”
Non-Sapiens: “What an advanced species & civilization you have…”
On that same theme, working on getting a daily tag for the headlines… thoughts, suggestions & crypto more than welcome… perhaps “Global Lion” (spin on Singapore), or “Not Macro’s MVP” (to stress humility need in the game) or “Tai Tai Macro Brief” (spin on Asia & wealth)…
And to be honest, KVP firmly believes… you get what you pay for… i.e. we need to price everything - content / views included – because when its “free” it is just not appreciated…
Stay tuned for this.. & yes, keep the credit cards handy… +5yrs on the sell-side gig & there are a lot of folks on the mailing list that are drinking for freeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee… Over the next few weeks, KVP will be cleaning out the mailing list & streamlining the distribution (Social Media) accordingly…
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With all that said, the question yesterday was: Is “The Struggle” real? And a far from fresh – yet always on point - KVP can tell… yep yep yep… it is absolutely real!
However, unlike most mornings post a “heavy” night (not often to be fair, you should have caught KVP back in his HK 7s days… lord have mercy) … this one is filled with no regrets - albeit apparently some plant life & plant pots in the KVP household would beg to differ… lets spin that one as earthquakes in Singapore!
Was at an LP meeting of SoGal Ventures, which has been a personal campaign for KVP + friends for 2019 - if you have not heard about the SoGal story & how we are changing the VC landscape that is skewed toward 97.8% of capital going to men, vs. 2.2% going to female entrepreneurs, then imho you need to get on the train. KVP has not been this excited since talking & picking up exposure to crypto in 2014/2015 and yes, back then everyone laughed as is always the case if you are first in through the door…. As we talked about yesterday… pioneers by definition have to be Bat Poop Crazy! #BCP (not that’s not a real hashtag… but whatever… )
Going back on SGV, we will know the mark to market in a few years, yet for someone that lives for finding asymmetrical trades this is likely +5x on the downside & could easily be above 10x… KVP’s convictions know no bounds & with a 15month young daughter who is more independent than the 4th of July (Its pretty clear, she will literally never work for anyone) , KVP is as biased as they come… on top of which let’s not forget it’s a theme & structural shift that is long overdue (we talking pretty much the history of our species), its social impact investing that is not just kumbaya songs & phenomenal exposure to millennials & Gen Z. Obviously as with all VC investments, imho allocate what you are comfortable with that can go to 0, because you are trying to make +3-5-10-20x…. so if you got $100m in cool cash sitting in the bank… $2-5m that could go to zero or make you $6 to $100m in 5-10yrs.. is a skew that KVP just has to take.
Lastly, if you are talking about entrepreneurs with a stack of chips on their shoulders, I can assure you female & minority entrepreneurs have more chips on their shoulders than a Vegas or Macau gambling gaming floor.
How does KVP like his angel investment entrepreneurs?
HUNGRY!
Plan A = Plan B…
There are zero bridges…
100% GRODT… Get Rich Or Die Trying…
Point here is not to be macho or the you have to have pain before you have gain framework… its just… you want the paragon of motivation… to the point where it is a necessity…
Necessity => Innovation…
Innovation => Global Macro Green Carpeted Mountain Ranch… i.e. more money than the 4 yards (trillions) that is sitting on the BOJ’s balance sheet…
Consider this tables banged, drum set broken, trumpets blown & cannons shot. If you are a keen, ping one of the two co-Founders Pocket or Eli, plus stay abreast of the start-up / VC funding competition that they are carrying out globally.
KVP was at the Singapore gig two nights back - big ups & thanks to PayPal, for the pioneering sponsoring on this! Hats off to Kelly & Jerry.
Gig was was super impressive…. KVP was like, please.. just take my money! There will be an LP meeting in NY & for those in Tokyo, Pocket (perhaps even your truly) will be up there in Nov… exciting things happening, get involved be it as a member of the tribe, part of the chapter houses, as an investor or just as an flag bearer – learnt so many things last night, super inspirational.
Met amazing people… from folks who used to run hedge funds who are now coaching, to other who are running their own money, to entrepreneurs that started some of the biggest unicorns out there, yet others on even more important pivots on real sustainability (not that BP window dressing BS)… to family office folks, to UHNW yet all with that passion for not just wanting to make a significant difference, yet also earn a decent return in doing so – as it should be…
sustainability > charity... every-time...
Special shout out to a bud, mentor & SGV LP (lets call him Ronin) who flew in from Tokyo for all this… Ronin is the mastermind behind, operation Shogun, which will be going down in Nov in Tokyo…. Reach out, get involved. And special thanks to a lot of other folks that supported last night, for whom KVP & family are patient zero… so gratitude extended to Stratos & his angel, JL & his queen, Metals Empress Julie & talkative mike, Ronin, Irish & his brilliant partner… & of course all those who could not make it given geographic dispersion
Fascinating thing about all this has been the rationale on passing on this, from some of the most switched on folks that KVP knows… anyhow… we cannot influence the outcome
What KVP is listening to… Waterways from Ludovico… yes, apparently “the beast” can be calmed…
Ok back on markets, my only conviction on a tactically basis, is a lack of conviction, which is another way of saying… nothing on the tactical / near-term horizon on KVP’s radar, yet the structural picture remains the same…
Remember the Meta Prime Conviction trend… we have yet to see all time lows in yields… & yet to see that by a long shot…
We are talking about UST which are at these 1.70- 2.00 range… getting well south of 1.00%... south of 50bp… We are talking about the front end of the US curve going into negative territory.
Timing? As always… that is the Rosetta stone… if KVP understood that when he started out in life, he would be 10,000x wealthier….
Timing = Everything. So budget 3-5 years… point here is… there are noise & noise related trades + views… & there are the core conviction / meta trends
As my man Zulu once told me, Timing is also a function of discipline… put that on your monitor… Zulu’s got more stripes than a referee tiger on a zebra crossing…
Back on the topic of views… you may think as a strategist KVP should always be long or short… nothing could be further from the truth…
Was chatting with a former colleague that was super senior internally… executive board & all that… & he was pressing for a view on Brexit / sterling… and post my riposte.. he/she/they claimed that KVP was being diplomatic… which is another way of saying, why are you trying tto dodge the bullet (apart from not wanting to get shot)
Let’s get one thing straight, when it comes to the committed campaign of tagging asymmetrical profitable trades, over time
Default Status: Aggressive, yet aggressively on the side-lines… We are the Lion in the Serengeti… waiting patiently…
Non-Default Status: “Honey, we gotta take a 4th mortgage on the house & liquidate the 2nd college fund for this puppy…”… i.e. Lion taking out that slow moving buffalo…
This is not grandpa’s or grandma’s wealth allocation… unless ofcourse if Grandma is a baller, has all her cashflow needs met & is a pioneer.
Know your temperament, invest/trade to your temperament… don’t build your life around your trading / investing… build your investing / trading around the lifestyle you want to manifest…
Again this is not investment advice. Do your own DD or find a trusted well priced advisor with real skin in the game & note how his / her performance has been during market downturns.
KVP is trying to compound money aggressively… if you are already richer than god & want to di-worsefiy go for it… kudos to you… and don’t forget… cross-asset allocation trumps +30 different stock allocations if you are looking to lower your portfolio correlation
That would be a pretty gangster DJ tag, “and up on the decks next ladies & gents… we have.. DJ… CORRELATION… “… or even more hard core… “DJ QE!”… Can you imagine.. DJ Quantitative Easing! With a tag like that… your game on the deck has best be drum tight
Have a great & well deserved weekend everyone, make every second count
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(Note that these are solely the views & opinions of KVP & do not constitute any trade or investment recommendations, nor advice of any-kind.)
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