US and European equities declined on the week with the exception of the Nasdaq which was boosted by blow out earnings from Nvidia where we saw more investors picking up the stock. There was also plenty of client activity in gold, silver and copper as recent price action provides opportunities for traders.
Clients add to positions as Nvidia reaches for the sky
There was lots of activity on the desk ahead of the important earnings call from Nvidia with clients generally adding long exposures. The company topped optimistic expectations with a revenue outlook materially above estimates and announced a 10-for-1 stock split sending the price 7% higher.
- Nvidia investment case
GBP was the most popular FX trade on changing rate expectations
Clients hurried to buy GBP on Tuesday as a significant drop in headline consumer prices dampened the chances of a first rate cut in June. Sterling rallied against other major currencies with long GBPJPY the most popular trade.
- The outlook on UK rates
Profit taking and stronger USD continues to elevate metals activity
Precious metals remained the favourite trade for our futures clients as profit taking coincided with stronger-than-expected US economic data that strengthened USD. Gold support at 2,314, Silver testing the $30 level and the Copper correction likely over were the focus of the conversations.
- Metals roundup
Things to look out for in the coming week include earnings from Salesforce which is widely held by Saxo clients and also HP Inc. and Dell Technologies as computer hardware is poised for a recovery. German CPI (Wednesday), China PMIs (Thursday), US PCE Deflator (Friday). There are also central bank speakers throughout the week for more clues on rate expectations.
2024: The wasted year
Markets are driven by election optimism, overshadowing growing debt and liquidity concerns. The 2024 elections loom large, but economic fundamentals and debt issues warrant cautious investment.
As US economic slowdown hints at a shift away from exceptionalism, USD faces downside with looming Fed cuts. AUD and NZD set to outperform as their rate cuts lag. JPY gains on carry unwind bets and BOJ pivot.
Amid AI and obesity drug excitement, equities see varied prospects: neutral on overvalued US stocks, negative on Japan due to JPY risks, positive on Europe. European defence stocks gain appeal.
With the economic slowdown, quality assets will gain favour, especially sovereign bonds up to 5 years. Central banks' potential rate cuts in Q2 suggest extending duration, despite policy and inflation concerns.
Commodities poised for rebound. The "Year of the Metal" boosts gold and silver, copper awaits rate cuts. Grains may recover, natural gas stabilises. Gold targets $2,300-$2,500/oz, copper's breakout could signal growth.
