Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
You can access all of our platforms from a single Saxo account.
Key Stories from the past week: China Stimulus Ignites Markets
Saxo
Markets have been moving this week after Beijing announced its biggest stimulus since the pandemic in an effort to re-ignite the economic slowdown and subsequent deflation which has plagued China - one of the world largest economies - for a while. Global equities & Precious metals seemed to overall welcome the news with several sectors rallying, especially luxury groups LVMH & Kering trading up on optimism that the stimulus might revive otherwise weakened demand. The Yen has been on a rollercoaster session ahead of Japan's LDP vote and hiking process pressures, and we saw danish pharma giant Novo-Nordisk hit a 6-month low on concerns over competition and pricing. Read more about this week's key stories below:
Hang Seng leaps as China adds to stimulus
After months of economic weakness and speculation the PBOC stepped in and took a more aggressive approach with a number of measures in support of the economy as well as the stock market. This includes among other cutting the 7-day reverse repo rate cut by 20bps, cutting the MLF by 30bps, lower mortgage rates doe existing loads and 500B yuan liquidity support for Chinese stocks. This added on to the risk sentiment that gave way following a 50bps cut by Fed. At Saxo we saw this translated into an increase in number of clients exposed to Hong Kong index by some 10% with 77% of clients being long.
China’s Bold Stimulus Measures: What It Means for Markets
Novo Nordisk pressured on pricing
Novo Nordisk share price hit a 6-month low and is down almost 20% over the last 10 weeks following the slightly disappointing Q2 results. This week CEO Lars Fruergaard testified in front of the US Senate health committee and that gave rise to more drug-pricing headline noise. Fruergaard promised price cuts, but only if the benefit goes to consumers and not the insurance companies. However, Novo Nordisk continue to hold massive longer term potential and key stock price catalyst in the near term include Rybelsus cardiovascular data and late-stage CagriSema data, which is key to upholding the obesity lead vs. Eli Lilly.
Yen surge after Japan PM election
The yen surged to the upper 142 range against the U.S. dollar after Shigeru Ishiba won Japan's ruling party election, defeating Sanae Takaichi. Ishiba's victory, which positions him to become Japan's next prime minister, led to a brief jump in JPY . Ishiba supports normalizing Japan's monetary policy, causing the yen to strengthen and raising concerns in the stock market due to his stance on financial income taxation.
Next week markets will be monitoring key US jobdata incl. Jobless/continuing claims (Thu), general unemployment & non-farm payrolls (Fri), while also keeping an eye at German inflation data (Mon) & euro area core cpi estimates (Tue). Sports-retail giant Nike that recently named a new CEO is expected to release Q1 25 earnings on Tuesday.
Latest Market Insights
Quarterly Outlook 2024 Q3
Sandcastle economics
-
Bonds: What to do until inflation stabilises
Discover strategies for managing bonds as US and European yields remain rangebound due to uncertain inflation and evolving monetary policies.
-
Equities: Are we blowing bubbles again
Explore key trends and opportunities in European equities and electrification theme as market dynamics echo 2021's rally.
-
FX: Risk-on currencies to surge against havens
Explore the outlook for USD, AUD, NZD, and EM carry trades as risk-on currencies are set to outperform in Q3 2024.
-
Commodities: Energy and grains in focus as metals pause
Energy and grains to shine as metals pause. Discover key trends and market drivers for commodities in Q3 2024.