Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Macro Brief: 'Super Wednesday Eve'
Christopher Dembik
Head of Macroeconomic Research
Summary: While today's economic calendar is on the scant side, tomorrow's is chock-a-block with meetings, reports and releases from three of the world's most important policy-setting organs.
Investors were still hesitant yesterday as they looked ahead to tomorrow's “Super Wednesday” with the European Central Bank meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee minutes, the US CPI report and the extraordinary European Council on Brexit, all in the same session.
The latest batch of US corporate earnings will follow from Friday with the banking sector the first to publish figures.
Investors are likely to stay in wait-and-see mode as there will be not much data to focus on. All the scheduled US economic indicator releases are not very important. The only point of interest should be the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook update, which is due today.
No big surprises are expected here since it is well known and already priced into the market that economic activity is sharply decelerating, especially in the euro area as a consequence of low credit pulse, China’s slowdown and negative trade developments. However, investors may monitor more closely forecasts for Germany as the latest economic figures have raised fears of a more pronounced slowdown than expected – some pundits are even starting to talk about the risk of recession.
The other major event of the day will concern the oil market that is clearly oriented north. Since its lowest December point, Brent has risen more than 40%. Given the disruptions in Libya and the collapse of oil production in Venezuela due to sanctions, it is likely that oil prices will continue to rise in the short term.
Today’s Calendar (All Times GMT)
08:00 ECB, Survey of bank loans
08:00 Italy, Retail sales in February
14:00 USA, JOLTS report
22:45 Fed, Clarida’s speech
The latest batch of US corporate earnings will follow from Friday with the banking sector the first to publish figures.
Investors are likely to stay in wait-and-see mode as there will be not much data to focus on. All the scheduled US economic indicator releases are not very important. The only point of interest should be the International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook update, which is due today.
No big surprises are expected here since it is well known and already priced into the market that economic activity is sharply decelerating, especially in the euro area as a consequence of low credit pulse, China’s slowdown and negative trade developments. However, investors may monitor more closely forecasts for Germany as the latest economic figures have raised fears of a more pronounced slowdown than expected – some pundits are even starting to talk about the risk of recession.
The other major event of the day will concern the oil market that is clearly oriented north. Since its lowest December point, Brent has risen more than 40%. Given the disruptions in Libya and the collapse of oil production in Venezuela due to sanctions, it is likely that oil prices will continue to rise in the short term.
Today’s Calendar (All Times GMT)
08:00 ECB, Survey of bank loans
08:00 Italy, Retail sales in February
14:00 USA, JOLTS report
22:45 Fed, Clarida’s speech
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