Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Summary: Equity sentiment continued to strengthen in Europe and US today, with Japan's equities under pressure from the recent sharp strengthening of the Japanese yen. A big test for USDJPY and the US dollar in general over today's June US CPI data as the dollar index trades near the big range lows of this year. In equities, we break down why the Nasdaq 100 index rebalancing should prove much ado about not-so-much in the near term and note that most of the upside in equities over the last quarter has been on multiple expansion more than anticipation of earnings growth. In fixed income, we note the extreme outperformance of junk debt this year and wonder when elevated US yields will begin to attract more assets into cash and short treasuries from equities. This and more on today's pod, which features Peter Garnry on equities, Althea Spinozzi on fixed income and John J. Hardy hosting and on FX.
Listen to today’s podcast - slides are available via the link.
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Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
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