Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Saxo Group
Bonds might seem complex at first glance, but they are actually one of the more straightforward investment options. They provide a reliable way to earn steady income and help balance out risk in a portfolio, particularly when markets become unpredictable. If it feels a bit challenging at first, don’t worry. Like any financial concept, bonds become clearer as you learn more.
So let’s explore what bonds are, how they work, and how they can contribute to a well-rounded financial strategy.
Bonds are fixed-income securities that function as loans made by an investor to a borrower, typically a corporation or government. When you purchase a bond, you essentially lend money to the issuer in exchange for periodic interest payments and the return of the bond's face value, or principal, at maturity.
When a government, corporation, or municipality issues a bond, it promises to pay back the borrowed amount on a specific date while making periodic interest payments to the bondholder. Unlike stocks, which represent equity ownership in a company, bonds are a form of debt.
This means bondholders are creditors to the issuer and have a higher claim on assets than shareholders in the event of liquidation.
For example, if you purchase a government bond with a face value of USD 1,000, a 5% coupon rate, and a maturity of 10 years, you'll receive USD 50 annually (or USD 25 semi-annually) for 10 years, and then the USD 1,000 face value will be returned to you at maturity.
Bonds come in various forms, each with distinct characteristics, risk levels, and benefits. Investors who understand these types can make better investing decisions:
Issued by national governments, government bonds are generally low- risk. Examples include U.S. Treasury bonds (T-Bonds) and sovereign bonds from other countries. They offer security and steady income, making them popular among risk-averse investors.
These are issued by local governments to fund public projects. They offer tax advantages, with interest often exempt from federal and sometimes state taxes. General obligation bonds are backed by the issuing government's taxing power, while revenue bonds are repaid from project-specific revenue.
Issued by companies to raise capital, corporate bonds typically offer higher yields than government bonds, reflecting their higher risk. Investment-grade bonds come from financially stable companies, while high-yield (junk) bonds are riskier but offer greater returns.
Issued by government-affiliated organisations, these bonds are considered low-risk but are not fully guaranteed by the government. They support projects like affordable housing and are a stable option for conservative investors.
These low-risk bonds are issued by governments and are intended for individual investors. U.S. examples include Series EE bonds, which are purchased at a discount, and Series I bonds, which are adjusted for inflation.
These bonds are issued at a discount and pay no periodic interest. They mature at full face value, with the difference between the purchase price and maturity value representing the return. They suit long-term investors seeking a lump-sum payout.
Investing in bonds can be an effective way to diversify your portfolio, generate steady income, and potentially reduce the overall risk of your investments. Here's a short summary on how to invest in bonds. For more detail, you can read our full guide on how to invest in bonds.
Before investing in bonds, it's crucial to identify your financial goals. Are you looking for steady income, capital preservation, or long-term growth? Understanding your objectives will help you choose the right types of bonds that align with your risk tolerance and investment horizon.
Based on your goals and risk tolerance, select the type of bond that best suits your needs:
If you prefer not to invest in individual bonds, bond funds or exchange-traded funds (ETFs) can provide diversification and professional management. These funds pool money from multiple investors to purchase various bonds, reducing the risk associated with investing in a single bond.
Bond prices and yields are inversely related—when interest rates rise, bond prices fall, and vice versa. Understanding this relationship is essential for making informed decisions, especially if you plan to buy or sell bonds before they mature.
You can buy bonds through a broking account, where you can access a wide range of bonds, including government, municipal, and corporate bonds. Alternatively, you can purchase government bonds directly from the Treasury through various platforms.
Regularly review your bond investments to ensure they align with your financial goals and the current market conditions. Keep an eye on interest rate movements, economic indicators, and changes in your personal financial situation.
Bond laddering involves buying bonds with varying maturity dates to reduce interest rate risk and provide a steady income stream. As bonds in the ladder mature, the proceeds can be reinvested into new bonds at the higher end of the ladder, potentially offering better returns.
Investing in bonds offers several key advantages, potentially making them an attractive option for you. These benefits can help diversify your portfolio, provide steady income, and reduce overall risk.
One of the primary advantages of bonds is the reliable income they generate. Bonds typically pay interest at regular intervals, usually semi-annually, which can provide a consistent and predictable cash flow. This makes bonds especially appealing to retirees and others who need a stable income source.
If you have a lower risk tolerance, bonds may be suitable as they are often considered a safer investment compared to stocks, particularly government and high-quality corporate bonds. When held to maturity, the bond's principal (face value) is returned to the investor, making bonds a good option for preserving capital, especially in times of market volatility.
Bonds can add diversification to an investment portfolio, helping to balance the risks associated with more volatile assets like stocks. Since bonds often move inversely to stocks, holding bonds can reduce the overall risk and volatility of your portfolio, especially during economic downturns.
Certain types of bonds, such as municipal bonds, offer tax benefits that can enhance their appeal. The interest earned on municipal bonds is often exempt from federal income tax and, in some cases, state and local taxes as well. This makes them particularly attractive to investors in higher tax brackets.
Compared to stocks, bonds generally exhibit lower price volatility, making them less susceptible to dramatic swings in value. This stability can be reassuring for investors who prefer to avoid the ups and downs of the stock market.
Because bonds pay fixed interest payments and have a set maturity date, they offer predictable returns. Investors know exactly how much they will earn in interest and when they will receive their principal back, making financial planning easier.
While bonds are typically held for income, they can also provide capital gains if sold before maturity. If interest rates decline after a bond is purchased, its price may rise, allowing the investor to sell it for a profit.
While bonds are generally considered safer than stocks, they are not without risk.
Knowing what risks you may take on when you invest in bonds can help you decide if you want to include them in your strategy at all.
The most significant risk associated with bonds is interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, the market value of existing bonds typically falls because newer bonds may offer higher returns. This can be particularly concerning for investors who may need to sell their bonds before maturity.
Bonds are subject to the issuer's credit risk. If the issuer's financial situation deteriorates, it may fail to make interest payments or repay the principal at maturity, leading to a default. Corporate bonds, especially high-yield (junk) bonds, are more susceptible to this risk than government bonds.
Inflation erodes the purchasing power of a bond's future interest payments and principal repayment. If inflation rises significantly, the fixed payments from bonds may not keep up, reducing the real value of returns.
Some bonds, particularly those from smaller issuers or with lower credit ratings, may be difficult to sell quickly without reducing the price. This lack of liquidity can be a problem if an investor needs to access cash quickly.
Reinvestment risk occurs when a bond matures or is called, and the investor must reinvest the proceeds at a lower interest rate. This is particularly relevant in a declining interest rate environment.
Certain bonds have a call feature that allows the issuer to repay the bond before maturity, usually when interest rates decline. This can be disadvantageous to investors, as it often forces them to reinvest at lower rates.
Although bonds are generally less volatile than stocks, they can still fluctuate in value due to broader market conditions, including changes in economic outlook, political events, or shifts in investor sentiment. This means your investment will still experience a certain level of risk, however low.
Bonds are often seen as a stabilising part of an investment strategy since they offer a way to potentially add balance, especially during uncertain times in the market. While they may seem complicated at first, understanding how they work can make them an accessible option for diversifying your portfolio.
If you're aiming for a more secure approach or simply looking to complement other investments, bonds can fit into your strategy as long as they align with your goals. Remember that it’s always a good idea to check in on your investments from time to time, adjusting as your needs or market conditions change.