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Technical Update - Nvidia another exhaustion signal. Apple and Tesla continued downtrend signals
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- Nvidia: Another Bearish Engulfing top and reversal candle has been formed adding to the one already in play. Technical indicators are suggesting trend exhaustion and Nvidia could also be in the process of forming a double top pattern. A close below 822.79 will confirm that.
- Apple: Failing to close above 179.25 resuming downtrend. Double top pattern will be confirmed by a close below key support at 165.67 with downside potential to USD 155-145
- Tesla: Rejected at key gap area yesterday. Selling pressure likely to return. Key support at around USD 152. If broken no support until around 110
NVIDIA formed yesterday another bearish engulfing top and reversal candle. The first one formed two weeks ago is still intact and having another one formed within a few weeks is a strong sign of uptrend exhaustion.
Adding to that, both the declining traded volume and the strength indicator RSI are showing divergence, i.e., strongly indicating uptrend exhaustion.NVIDIA is also forming what could appear to be a double-top-like pattern. However, confirmation is needed for the trend is in fact reversing.
If NVIDIA is closing below USD 822.79, i.e., closing the gap, the stock could be hit by heavy selling that could take the share price down to support at around USD 742. Minor support at USD 771.62.
For NVIDIA to demolish this top and reversal picture, a close above USD 974 is needed. If that scenario plays out, a bullish move to USD 1,055–1,075 is in the cards
Apple failed to close above resistance at around USD 179.25 and got hit by another round of selling.
The bearish trend is resumed and Apple could test the support at around USD 166.89–165.67 shortly. That area is key for the medium-term picture.
A close below could fuel a sell-off down to the consolidation area USD 155–145. RSI is in negative sentiment with no divergence supporting the bearish outcome.
In the bigger picture, Apple has formed a double-top-like pattern (more visible on the weekly chart) that will be confirmed by a close below USD 165.67.
Usually, when a double top pattern has been confirmed by breaking below the valley, the price comes back down to around the base/consolidation area. The base area is the sideways trading behaviour prior to the bullish move higher to the first top.
The lower part of that base area is also very close to the 1.618 projection of the double top (measured from the peak to the valley i.e., from USD 199.62 to USD 165.67).
The 1.618 projection is the usual distance prices are moving to after double top confirmation.
Both daily and weekly RSI are in negative sentiment supporting the bearish trend. For Apple to demolish and reverse this bearish scenario, a close above USD 179.15 is needed. If that scenario plays out Apple could establish an uptrend to around 185-190
Tesla yesterday tested the latest gap area only to get rejected. A close of the gap, i.e., a close above USD 188.14, is needed for Tesla to gain any further upside momentum.
The push to test the gap has come after RSI has been showing divergence since 14th March, indicating exhaustion of the downtrend.
The strength indicator, RSI is currently testing its upper falling trendline, and a close above would strongly suggest Tesla will have a go at the USD 188.14 resistance, possibly breaking it.
If buyers can lift Tesla to close above USD 188.14, the resistance that needs to be taken out next is the gap up to USD 207.83 back from 25th January.
However, with the rejection yesterday Tesla could be hit by another round of selling with downside potential to around USD 152 short-term. The selling pressure could very well intensify if Tesla drops back below USD 170.
As can been from the weekly chart Tesla is in a medium-term down trend (Lower Lows and Lower Highs) and if closing below USD 152 there is no strong support until around 110
To reverse the medium-term bearish trend a close above last Lower High i.e., above 205.60 is necessary
Disclaimer: Author is holding a short position in Tesla