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Global Market Quick Take: Europe – September 14 2023
Macro 3 minutes to read
Saxo Strategy Team
Summary: US and European equity futures markets trade higher with Asian markets also climbing on cautious optimism the Federal Reserve may decide to pause rate hikes after US core inflation advanced the least in two years. The dollar and Treasury yield both trade softer ahead of US retail sales with the euro ticking higher as traders' price in a two-third chance of a rate hike from the European Central Bank later today. Crude trades near a ten-month high on concerns about a supply shortfall, copper higher on yuan strength while gold prices have steadied following a two-day decline.
The Saxo Quick Take is a short, distilled opinion on financial markets with references to key news and events.
Equities: S&P 500 futures are holding up well against recent weakness trading around the 4,530 level despite yesterday’s higher-than-expected US inflation opening the door for the Fed to hike interest rates one more time in December. Arm IPO was priced at the top end of the range at $51 per share with trading set to being today. Adobe earnings after the US market close could be a key event for the AI-related cluster of stocks.
FX: The US dollar wobbled on the CPI release but could not close the day higher with Treasury yields slipping. EUR in the spotlight today as ECB decision is due, and EURUSD has found support at 1.07 for now with a rate hike priced in with over 65% probability. USDJPY trades softer after government minister talked about the need for strong economic measures. Yuan strengthened further with authorities increasing bill sales in Hong Kong to soak up yuan liquidity making it more expensive to short the currency.
Commodities: Brent holds above $92 and WTI near $90 after the IEA joined OPEC’s warnings of a supply shortfall in the coming months, thereby supporting a rally that started back in June when Saudi Arabia curbed supply to boost prices. Softening the rally was a weekly US stock report showing rising stocks and production near the 2020 record. Near-term the market looks overbought and in need of a pullback. Gold looking for support ahead of $1900 with a hawkish FOMC pause back on the agenda while copper trades firmer with a stronger yuan offsetting a rise in LME stocks to a two-year high
Fixed income: The US yield curve bull-steepened yesterday despite higher-than-expected CPI numbers, indicating that the Federal Reserve might be approaching the end of the hiking cycle. Yet, long-term yields remained flat as the 30-year auction showed a drop in indirect demand and tailed by 1bps despite pricing at the highest yield since 2011. Overall, we remain cautious, favouring the front part of the yield curve over a long duration. Bonds will gain as the economy starts to show signs of deceleration. Still, larger coupon auction sizes and a hawkish BOJ will support long-term yields unless a tail event materializes. We still see 10-year yields rising further to test strong resistance at 4.5%. Today, the focus will be on the ECB, which markets expect to hike. Due to a recession in Germany and in Netherlands, we believe that the ECB will deliver a hawkish pause today, which might result in a short-lived bond rally.
Macro: US CPI surprised to the upside, but it did not alter the markets thinking around the Fed. Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM, or +0.278% unrounded, above the prior/expected +0.2%, with core YoY printing 4.3%, down from July's 4.7%, and in line with expectations. Headline print was in line with expectations at 0.6% MoM, up from +0.2% on account of energy price increases, with YoY lifting to 3.7% from 3.2%, above the expected 3.6%. The PBoC announced plans to issue RMB15 billion Central Bank Bills in Hong Kong on September 19, which is going to tighten CNH (offshore renminbi) liquidity further
In the news: Asset managers BlackRock and Amundi are warning that US recession risks are rising – full story in the FT. Germany is facing big structural problems in its manufacturing sector with gloom taking over among workers – full story in the FT. The EU is weighing tariffs against China over flooding the market with cheap electric vehicles – full story on Reuters.
Technical analysis: S&P 500. Key at resistance at 4,540. Key Support at 4,340. Nasdaq 100 15,561 is key resistance. EURUSD downtrend, support at 1.0685, Expect short-term bounce to 1.08. AUDJPY testing resistance at 95.00. Crude oil uptrend stretched, expect a correction lower
Macro events: ECB Main Refinancing Rate exp. unchanged at 4.25% (1215 GMT), US Retail Sales (Aug) exp. 0.1% vs 0.7% prior (1230 GMT), US Initial Jobless Claims exp. 225k vs 216k prior (1230 GMT), US PPI (Aug) exp. 0.4% vs 0.3% prior (1230 GMT),
Commodities events: EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Change (1430 GMT)
Earnings events: Adobe reports FY23 Q3 earnings (ending 31 August) after the US market close with analyst expecting revenue growth of 10% y/y and EPS of $3.98 up 63% y/y. Read our earnings preview here.
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