Morning Brew April 22 2025

Good morning,

News continue to dominate markets:

Yesterday was a very bad day for equities as the attacks of Donald Trump against Colin Powell shake the foundations of the US political system. It seems he is not only shooting himself in the foot but using a shotgun to do it.

The Dow lost 3.2%, the S&P 500 3.3% and the Nasdaq 3.5%, Gold hit a further record testing the 3500, the USD drops further while US Yields rise.

Jacob commented on Why Fed independence matters (a lot):

The independence of the Federal Reserve isn’t just academic theory; it’s the cornerstone of investor confidence. Without an independent Fed, investors could face unchecked inflation, unpredictable monetary policy, and systemic instability. A politically compromised Fed undermines trust, not just domestically, but globally. Foreign investors hold trillions in US Treasuries precisely because the Fed’s independence assures stability and clarity.

The USD Index has fallen from 110 to 98 since DJT took office4, EURUSD has gone from testing parity to 1,15 USDCHF has reached levels that will be very uncomfortable for the SNB at 0.8080 while we were at 0.92 at the beginning of the year. Gold is up 35% this year, silver only 15%  yesterday all magnificent 7 stocks fell with Tesla and Nvidia the worst off at more than 5% losses.

What is going on?

It seems that none of the initial ideas of the US Administration is going according to “plan” and Trump is lashing out against every target that could be blamed, from Powell to Zelinski, Putin or the EU. US Universities are uniting against the administration.

Neither the tariff negotiations, Ukraine, Inflation, Doge or his cabinet seem to be working out and his approval rating is at a low.

In this environment, it is difficult to predict the next market driver.

We are expecting some economic data points this week but none of the rop tier evens, there are Key earnings like UBS, Tesla, Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet Nestle or LVMH… more than the actual earnings, the outlook and the possible uncertainty are more important in my view.

Tesla will be closely watched today with the key questions the status of the Robotaxi, will Elon`s focus return to running his companies or remain on Doge? There are reports Tesla is shifting focus from the low price EV many people are expecting to the Robotaxi. Will that work out?  If you want to trade the earnings, enable trading extended hours in the platform settings and use limit orders toggled to extended hours.

Tariff negotiations, News from Ukraine and US domestic politics will drive markets: Will Pete Hegseth survive the week as secretary of defense?

Klaus Schwab resigned as the Head of the WEF, Roche is looking to invest up to USD 50 bio in the US the next years.

Trade carefully as there can be surges of volatility at any point in time also without scheduled events!

 Economic Events

Tuesday, April 22

1400 – Eurozone April Consumer Confidence
1400 – Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
1700 – US Treasury to auction 2-year notes
Fed speakers: Jefferson (1300), Harker (1330) & Kashkari (1830)

Wednesday, April 23

- Global PMI
- EU Trade Balance

Thursday, April 24

- Switzerland: Economic Sentiment Index
- Germany IFO

US Durable Goods Orders, & Initial Jobless Claims

Friday, April 25

- Japan CPI

- UK Retail Sales.

- Canada Retail Sales.

 Key Conferences & Summits

- April 24–25: International Summit on the Future of Energy Security, London (G7 relevance: UK host, global economic focus)[2]

 Top 20 Earnings Releases (Week of April 21–25, 2025)

 Date          Company            Country        

 April 22      Netflix            US             

 April 22      Johnson & Johnson  US             

 April 22      Novartis           Switzerland    

 April 22      UBS Group          Switzerland    

 April 23      Tesla              US             

 April 23      Meta Platforms     US             

 April 23      ASML              Netherlands    

 April 23      Roche              Switzerland    

 April 23      SAP                Germany        

 April 24      Microsoft          US             

 April 24      Alphabet (Google)  US             

 April 24      Nestlé             Switzerland    

 April 24      LVMH               France         

 April 24      Unilever           UK             

 April 24      Daimler            Germany        

 April 25      ExxonMobil         US             

 April 25      Chevron            US             

 April 25      Procter & Gamble   US             

 April 25      Sanofi             France         

 April 25      Barclays           UK