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Morning Brew August 17 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Hawkish Fed Minutes weighs on Risk sentiment
Good Morning,
Hawkish Fed Minutes caused 10 Year Yields to break resistance, weighed on equities and boosted the USD;
“Participants remained resolute in their commitment to bring inflation down to the ... 2% objective," the minutes said… Most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy."
As the 10 year yields rise to 4.3% and have reached the initial target set out by out technical analyst. Kim Cramer. the USD Index breached the 200 day Moving Average. At the same time, Gold fell below the 200 day line and found some support at the June lows so far. EURUSD fell to below 1.09 to 1.0875, GBPUSD 1.2725 and USDJPY 146.40.
Equities fell: S&P 500 -0.76%, Nasdaq -1.15%, Dow -0.52%., the GER40 tried to break higher but fell back to 15700.
Overall the moves are in line with the expected Stagflation but the tones are somewhat more hawkish than we had initially expected but as the Fed clearly states it takes a data driven approach, any change in the labor market or inflation outlook can have a significant impact.
The economic situation in China remains fragile, Asset manager Zhongzhi Enterprise Group stated it was facing liquidity issues and was looking for investors. As it seems overall unlikely China will try to resolve the current slump with public spending but will rather try to boost household spending these news are not good at all.
The economic Agenda for the rest of the week is a little thin but we do have the Walmart earnings as gauge of economic sentiment and the need for discount shopping.
Keep an eye on technical and tech stocks as measure of sentiment and remain nimble and consider options.
Thursday August 17
Data: JP Trade, Initial Jobless claims
Earnings: Target Corp, CNOOC,, Adyen, Walmart Inc, Applied Materials Inc,
Friday August 18
Data: UK Retail sales, HICP
Earnings: Palo Alto Networks, Deere, Estee Lauder