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Morning Brew August 30 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk On or Off?
Good Morning
Markets are stuck in Limbo trying to assess the implications of Jerome Powell’s speech on Friday.
Equities gave up a little ground in the US while the GER 40 can recover somewhat. US Indexes fell between 0.5% and 1% and the Vix hit a 7 week high, Volumes ere app. 10% below the 20 day average.
The probability of a 75 basis point hike in September has risen to 70% but he 10 Year Yield has receded a little to 3.07.
The USD Index falls below 109 to trade at 108.70, EURUSD is spot on at parity and GPBUSD 1.1705. USDJPY 13845 and Gold and Silver remain near recent lows at 1734 and 18.70.
After hawkish tones out of the ECB, a 75 basis point hike seems to be on the table, the current expectation is 60% for a 0.6% hike and 40 for 70 Basis Points.
Oil could rise and pulled oil stocks higher, the October contract in the UK rose to 104.45.
The EU and Germany are looking into the pricing of EEX Electricity as the current model seems less than ideal for the current situation
The White House announced to ask to approve an arms sale to Taiwan, raising risk for a higher tension between China and the US
Toyota vehicle production fell 8.6% year-on-year, missing its target for the fourth straight month on COVID and weather issues and the Chip shortage.
Today we are expecting consumer confidence numbers out of the EU and the US as well as the Swiss Leading Indicator KOF, a large number of Futures contracts will expire today.
The Key driver will continue to be sentiment and if risk aversion remains in the forefront. The low volume may indicate that not to be the case.
Economic Data:
Tuesday: Swiss KOF, EU consumer Conficence, US Consumer Confidence,
Wednesday: Norway GDP, CH Official reserves, EU HICP, Italy CPI
Thursday: IT, FR, DE and EU PMI, EU Unemployment Rate, US Initial Jobless claims, PMI
Friday: US Nonfarm Payrolls
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
SGX SICOM Rubber TSR20 (STFU2) will expire 30th Aug at 2:00 GMT
Copper (HSU2), KCBT Hard Red Winter Wheat (KEU2), Rough Rice (RRU2), E-micro Silver (SILU2), Silver (SIU2), Ultra 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note (TNU2), Ultra T-Bond (UBU2), Mini-sized Chicago SRW Wheat (XWU2), U.S. Treasury Bond (ZBU2), Corn (ZCU2), 5-Year U.S. Treasury Note (ZFU2), Soybean Oil (ZLU2), Soybean Meal (ZMU2), 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note (ZNU2), Oats (ZOU2), Soybeans (ZSU2), 2-Year U.S. Treasury Note (ZTU2), Wheat (ZWU2) will expire 30th Aug at 15:00 GMT
RBOB Gasoline (RBU2) will expire 31 Aug at 15:00 GMT
Random Length Lumber (LBU2) will expire 1st Sep at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs:
CHINA50AUG22, SINGAPOREAUG22, TAIWAN95AUG22 will expire 30th Aug at 2:00 GMT