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Morning Brew December 7 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Uncertainty ahead of Key Events
Good Morning
Nervousness is hitting markets ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll tomorrow and the rate decisions next week. In the US, 5 cuts are priced in by December 24, the first full cut is priced in May. In Europe, the ECB is seen to lower rates by 140 basis points in the next year – nearly 6 cuts. A lower ADP Employment number and growing Chinese Exporst fail to convince traders, Indexes gave up ground yesterday and continue to drop overnight. The Swiss National Bank is seen to cut rates by 130 basis points. The big question is if this dovish scenario is really realistic and we need a really low Nonfarm Payroll number to confirm it.
10 Year Yields in the US are still at 4.17 so 80 Basis points from the peak, the USD Index has broken the 104 again to the upside.
The US 500 is trading at 4543, the Dow 36000 and the US Tech 100 NAS 15766. The GER40 is holding at 16600 – still very strong at almost a 10% gain in the past month.
EURUSD is on support at 1.0765, GBPUSD 1.2555 and USDJPY is trading lower on hopes of BOF action, it is at 145.90.
Gold has stabilized at 2030 and XAG fell below he 24 – this causes the Gold Silver ratio to rise from nearly 80 to 85.
Oil fell to a 6 month low yesterday with US Crude below the 70.
Large Banks are putting out their outlooks for 2024 and the range seems to be fairly wide. Deutsche Bank sees the S&P 500 at 5100 at year end, Goldman Sachs at 4700 and JP Morgan at 4200.
The key today will be the initial jobless claims as a hint for the Nonfarm Payroll and to a lesser degree the EU GDP as well as employment data.
Thursday
- Data China Trade, EU GDP, US Initial Jobless claims
Friday
- Data Japan GDP US Nonfarm Payrolls