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Morning Brew January 2025
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Have bonds stabilized?
Good Morning,
A global bond selloff caused high yields and US curbs on AI related chip Sales to China initially weighed on sentiment yesterday. In the end, the S&P and the Dow could close in the green while the Nasdaq closed 0.4% lower. Nvidia lost 2%, the traded volume was at the 20 day average with 15 billion shares traded.
Overnight, US 10 year Yields receded a little to 4.75 allowing the USD Index to fall to 109.52. The German EU and Japanese Yields remain near the highs, the Japanese at the highest since 2011, the EU at the highest since last June.
EURUSD is trading at 1.0245, GBPUSD 1.22 and USDJPY 157.55.- Statements from Japan we may see a hike in January boosts the Yen. Bitcoin stabilized to 95k and has so far avoided confirming a Shoulder Head Shoulder formation that would be a bad technical signal. Gold and Silver traded weaker yesterday, Gold is now at 2668 and Silver 29.65.
There are reports Byte dance is considering the sale of TikTok to Elon Musk
Hopes for a truce between Hamas and Israel are rising, the Biden administration seems desperate to achieve that ahead of the Trump inauguration so Biden and not Trump can claim the credit.
Today the key will be the sentiment in Bond markets – will the selloff continue or will we see a stabilization?
Ther is little to expect in terms of economic data ahead of the US CPI tomorrow but the middle east, Team Trump and the Biden Administration are worth watching.
Trade safely!!
Tuesday
- Data Japan Current Account, US PPI
- Schmidt and Williams speak
Wednesday
- Data Japan Tankan, UK , Sweden, France and US CPI.
- Fed Barkin speaks, Feds Beige Book.
- Earnings: JP Morgan, Citi, Wells Fargo, Blackrock, BNY, Goldman Sachs,
Thursday
- Data AU Employment Data, Germany Inflation, UK GDP, IT CPI. Initial Jobless claims, Retail Sales, Filly Fed
- Earnings: tsmc, MBank of America. US Bancorp,
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Friday
- Data China Retail Sales, GDP. EU Harmonized Inflation US Industrial Production,
- Statestreet
Physically Settled Futures
USF5 will expire on 13-Jan at 0600 UTC
GIF5 will expire on 16-Jan at 1940 UTC
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ECOG5 will expire on 24-Jan at 1000 UTC