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Morning Brew January 9 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk Soars, USD Falters on weak ISM
Good Morning,
While the Nonfarm Payroll came higher than expected and the jobless rate fell to 3.5%, average earnings rose less than expected and most importantly, the U.S. services activity declined for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years coming at 49.6 versus an expectation of 55. The peak rate expectation fell by 10 basis points and 10 year rates fell to 3.55
This caused risk sentiment to soar as the weak PMI indicated less need for rat hikes as previously expected. The Dow gained 2.13%, the S&P 2.28%, Nasdaq 2.56% The Dax Future closed at above 14700.
The USD Index fell 1.08% to below 104 , EURUSD rose to 1.0644 or 1.2%, Gold and Silver soared to 1856 and 23.80.
Over the week end the USD Index gave up more ground to trade at 103.60. EURUSD rises to 1.0680, GBPUSD 1.2140 and USDJPY falls to 131.80. Bitcoin is moving and broke above the 17k.
Gold is testing the 1875 resistance, a break could open the way to 1910/20.
Kevin McCarthy was finally elected speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives on Saturday
Jack Ma is ceding control of Ant Group it was announced, shares of Ant as well as Alibaba can rise. Goldman Sachs Group is expected to announce job cuts in this week.
Economic data is a bit thin this week but we are kicking off the earning season with key Banks reporting on Friday: Bank of New York Mellon, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, First Republic Bank also BlackRock and Delta Airlines.
Key will be to anything confirming an economic slowdown in the US or the denial of which as that will determine the rate path.
Key economic releases
Monday 9 January
- U.S. Manheim used vehicle index (Dec)
- Germany Industrial production (Nov)
- Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (Jan)
- Eurozone Unemployment rate (Nov)
- Japan: market closed for holiday
Tuesday 10 January
- France Industrial production (Nov)
- Japan Tokyo-area CPI (Dec)
- Fed's Bostic speaks in a moderated discussion
- Fed's Daly interviewed in WSJ Live event
- Fed Chair Powell speaks at Riksbank event
Wednesday 11 January
- Australia retail sales (Nov)
- Australia CPI (Nov)
- U.S. MBA mortgage applications (Jan 6)
Thursday 12 January
- Australia trade (Nov)
- U.S. CPI (Dec)
- China CPI & PPI (Dec)
- Fed's Harker discusses the economic outlook
Friday 13 January
- U.S. U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Jan, preliminary)
- Eurozone: Industrial production (Nov)
- UK: Monthly GDP (Nov)
- Japan: Money supply (Dec)
- China: Imports, exports and trade balance