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Morning Brew July 3 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Welcome to H2
Good Morning,
US Inflation came lower than expected on Friday, and overnight we saw a better than expected Japanese Tankan Survey and Chinese PMI – Boosting Risk sentiment into the 3rd quarter.
On Friday, Indexes had already closed higher and Apple hit the 3 Trillion Market Cap and the Nasdaq delivered the best performance in 40 years.
The Core PCE was released at 4.6% versus the expected 4.7% and while there was no shift in the rate expectation, it boosted sentiment.
In the FX Markets, the USD Index fell to 103 from 103.50, EURUSD broke back above 1.09 and GBPUSD is testing the 1.27. USDJPY fell to 144.45 and Gold and Silver gained to 1919 and 22.90. Yen remains too high for the BoJs comfort and could react strongly. Gold and Silver may have upside potential if traders are convinced the lows are in.
Tesla announced better than expected sales numbers yesterday- watcht the stock today
Today we expect the Swiss CPI at 8:30 which is expected at 1.8% year on Year, international PMI and overall thin liquidity due to the US Holiday tomorrow.
Bank of America holds more than 100 bio in unrealized losses in its bond portfolio, that could spark unease.
MONDAY July 3rd: Swiss CPI (Jun), EZ/UK/US Manufacturing PMI Final (Jun), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
TUE: July 4th RBA Announcement, NBH Announcement, South Korean CPI (Jun), German Trade Balance (May)
WED: July 5th FOMC Minutes, Chinese Caixin Services PMI Final (Jun), EZ/UK/US Services & Composite PMI Final (Jun), US Durable Goods R (May)
THU: July 6th NBP Announcement, Australian Trade Balance (May), EZ Retail Sales (May), US ADP National Employment (Jun), US ISM Services PMI (Jun) Opec Seminar
FRI July 7th : German Industrial Output (May), US Jobs Report (Jun), Canadian Jobs Report (Jun)