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Morning Brew July 27 2021
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Risk in demand ahead of the Nonfarm Payroll
Good Morning,
Risk on sentiment regained traction yesterday.
US Yields rise to above 3% again, pulling the USD Higher, the USD Index retakes the 107 threshold. EURUSD fell to 1.0144, GBPUSD 1.20 and USDJPY 135.55. EURCHF continues to fall and broke below 99. Gold and Silver are at 1740 and 19.20.
The weak EUR is adding to the ECB`s worries as imports are becoming more expensive further adding fuel to the already high inflation.
Fed funds futures are pricing in a maximum rate to peak at 3.44% in March 2023 . Expectations before the June meeting were that it would increase to around 4%, at the moment we are at 1.58%.
Equites could recover yesterday , the Dow rises 1.12%, the S&P 1.5% and the Nasdaq 2.28%, the GER40 has recovered 400 points of Tuesday low. Tesla gained 5.5% yesterday. Bitcoin rose 6.% to 21,80016 at yesterday.
Oil gained 4% yesterday but fell slightly as U.S. stockpiles rose sharply last week, copper could gain to 356 yesterday before falling to 348 now, the low on Wednesday was 327.
Boris Johnson announced his resignation yesterday, giving the GBP a little boost off the low.
Former Japanese PM Shinzo Abe was shot at a speech and is in critical condition
GameStop Corp fired it`s CFO and shares fall 8%
Reuters reports that the the LME`s suspension of its nickel contract in March has led to a sharp drop in metals trading activity. The Total LME volumes dropped by 21% over the second quarter relative to the first three months of 2022
All eyes will be on the Non-Farm Payroll today at 14:30 with an expectation of 268k, average earnings are expected to have risen by 5% pa, and the unemployment rate is expected at 3.6%.