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Morning Brew June 9 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Busy week ahead - get your positions in Order
Saxo Morning Brew
Disappointing EU GDP and most importantly higher initial Jobless claims caused the expectation for a pause by the Fed on Wednesday to rise again, there is a 75% chance of no change.
2 year yields remain little changed at now 4.51%, the USD Index falls to 103.40, EURUSD rises to 1.0770, GBPUSD 1.2550, USDJPY 139.36. Gold and Silver jumped to 1963 and 24.24, The Turkish Lira continues it`s decline to 23.45 against the USD.
Ole on Gold: Gold buyers look beyond current headwinds:
In Stocks Indexes rose and tech was the biggest gainer with the S&P 500 +0.62%, Dow Jones +0.5% and Nasdaq +1.02%. The GER40 is back at 16000. Tesla gained 4.6%, Amazon 2.5%, Nvidia 2.7% and Apple 1.6%. The Vix falls to the lowest levels since before Covid at 13.66.
Today’s calendar is virtually empty ahead of a very busy week coming up with the CPI and three key central bank decisions from the US, EU and Japan.
Today there will be lot`s of political discussions following the indictment of Donald Trump for 7 criminal offenses and a possible Chinese spy base in Cuba.
In my View the market is too complacent in its expectation of volatility as we have lots of risk both ways looming- trade safely. Options are fairly cheap if you expect sharp moves next week.