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Morning Brew May 27 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Memorial Day likely causing a slow start to an important week
Good morning,
The coming week will (most likely) start slowly and end with the most important event. On Monday the US are closed due to Memorial Day, on Friday we are expecting the EU HICP (Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices) and the US PCE which will provide crucial inflation data for the ECB and the Fed. We are also heading into month end and massive expiries and after the massive moves we say in the last month – especially in commodities- position adjustments are likely.
On Friday, the Dow Jones basically stood still, changing by 0.01%, for the week it lost 2.3%, the S&P500 gained 0.7% on Friday, +0.03% weekly and the Nasdaq added 1.1% on the day and 1.4% on the week. According to Reuters, 77.9% of the 480 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings have beat expectations, LSEG data showed. While below the 79% beat rate over the last year, it is above the 67% average since 1994.
Volumes were low despite Options expiry, 10.35 Billion shares were traded against an average of 12.2 billion on average. The Vix is at the lows again.
The biggest outlier was Workday, after a lower than expected forecast, the stock dropped 15%. Nvidia gained 2.6% to close at 1067. Koen wrote a Earnings season is a critical time for investors, providing valuable insights into a company's performance and future prospects. For a tech giant like Nvidia, post-earnings analysis can reveal crucial details about its financial health, strategic direction, and market position. To make the most of this information, it's essential to follow a structured approach.
In the Swiss market, news that Julius Baer was looking to take over EFG caused some excitement Friday evening, acc. to Reuters news, the discussions did indeed take place but have been discontinued.
10 year Yields are trading lower at currently 4.47 and the USD Index dropped to 104.70. EURUSD is at 1.0850, GBPUSD 1.2740 and USDJPY at 156.75.
Gold and Silver rise 0.4% and 1.5% respectively to trade 2342 and 30.80, Platinum is also higher at 1043.40 and copper is stable at 476.66 on the July contract. The June Gold Contract still has an open interest of 129k Contracts and first notice date is this week.
Bitcoin is stable at 68400 but Ethereum is up 4.4% on the day.
The FOMC on June 12th has a probability of currently 0% that it will change rates, %. We now stand a 50% chance of a rate cut in September and 40 basis points by year end. The ECB on June 6th is seen to cut with 88% probability and at least once more by year end, most likely in October.
Geopolitical risks remain high the middle east, the war in Ukraine and Sino-American tensions are looming as China, South Korea and Japan are holding trade talks.
Monday
- Data: Japan Leading Indicator, DE IFO US Holiday
- Earnings:
Tuesday
- Data Japan PPI, AU Retail Sales, US Consumer Confidence, Lerettta Mester & Lisa Cook speaking
- Earnings:
Wednesday
- Data DE CPI, Beige Book
- Earnings: HP Inc
Thursday
- Data CH KoF Indicator, EU Consumer Confidence & Unemployment rate, US GDP& Initial Jobless Claims
- Earnings: Dell Technologies, Marvell, Costco
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, China PMI, France CPI, EU Inflation, US PCE and CA GDP
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
NGM4 will expire on 28 May 2024 at 19:30
CGZM4 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 15:00
FLGM4 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 15:00
TTFMM4 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 09:00
EMAM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 13:00
GCM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
MGCM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
TNM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
UBM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
Z3NM will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZBM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZFM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZNM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
ZTM4 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 15:00
HOM4 will expire on 31 May 2024 at 15:00
RBM4 will expire on 31 May 2024 at 15:00
Expiring CFDs
NATGASUSJUN24 will expire on 27 May 2024 at 15:00
HK50MAY24 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 14:00
GOLDJUN24 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 15:00
GASOLINEUSJUN24 will expire on 27 May 2024 at 15:00
CHINA50MAY24 will expire on 30 May 2024 at 14:00
30YUSTBONDJUN24 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 15:00
10YUSTNOTEJUN24 will expire on 29 May 2024 at 15:00