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Morning Brew November 1 2022
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: EU Inflation as a Halloween gift - Dow has the best month since 1976
Good Morning
Welcome to November
Stocks lost a little steam yesterday after a strong month with the Dow Jones having the best month since 1976. The Index gained 14%, the S&P 500 8% and the Nasdaq gained 4% due to the pressure on mega caps.
This morning risk sentiment is strong with the USD a little weaker and equities gaining. Gold and Silver rise to 1643 and 19.55, the EURUSD 0.9925 and GBPUSD to 1.1535 and the USD Index hovers near 111. China's yuan fell to a near 15-year low against the dollar
The positive sentiment is likely driven by a higher than feared Chinese PMI, coming at 49.2 vs 49 expected and the fact that the Australian Central Bank stuck to a hike of 25 Basis points rather than 50.
European Inflation was reported even higher than feared yesterday, causing fears of hawkish central Banks.
Eyes remain on the FOMC tomorrow where the expectation remains for a hike of 75 Basis Points, the probability remains above 95% and the ten year yield remains near 4% - hopefully the US PMIs (14:45 and 15:00) will not change the mood.
Headlines:
Japan spent a record $42.8 billion on currency intervention in October
Sony`s profit rose 8%, Toyotas fell by app 25%
Saudi Aramco said on Tuesday its third-quarter net income rose 39%
The Chinese real estate Market remains under pressure with prices falling again and sales declining app 20% yoy.
Economic data:
Tuesday: AU Rate, CN PMI, US PMI,
Wednesday: EU PMI, DE unemployment, FOMC Rate decision
Thursday: UK PMI and Rate decision, EU Unemployment, US PMI,
Friday; EU PMI, US Nonfarm Payrolls
Earnings:
Tuesday: AMD, Pfizer, BP
Wednesday: Novo Nordisk, GSK, Booking, Qualcom, CVS,
Thursday: ConocoPhillips Cigna Corp, Amgen, Paypal, Starbucks, EOG, DBS,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures:
Random Length Lumber - Nov 2022 (LBX2) will expire 1st Nov 15:00 GMT