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Morning Brew October 24 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Intersting...
Good Morning
US 10 year yields topped the 5% yesterday before falling to 4.85 again, this caused a massive selloff of the US dollar against the Euro and the Pund, the Dollar Index fell to 105.50. EURUSD is at6 1.0670 and GBPUSD 1.2270, the Yen, Gold and Silver are lagging the move at 149,70, 1977 and 23.15. EURUSD broke above the key resistance at 1.0635.
As Althea is travelling in Lugano tomorrow, she already published her ECB preview, coming to the conclusion that it can only be a pause: Rising long-term yields, uncertainty surrounding war in the Middle East, and rumors of the Bank of Japan tweaking yield curve control next week are setting the stage for the ECB to pause at this week's monetary policy decision. Markets will be interested in discussions concerning the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP); however, with the BTP-Bund spread widening, it’s unlikely that the ECB will signal to stop reinvestments under this program
The Bank of England is likely done with policy tightening and will leave Bank Rate at 5.25% on Nov. 2, according to the vast majority of economists polled by Reuters
The Big Question is if we are seeing a full reversal of the longer term USD Strength or if this is a bump in the road to the USD Index reaching levels above the 110 again.
US Indexes were undecided with the Dow and S&P 500 slightly negative, the Nasdaq slightly positive, the GER40 fell to 14630 before retreating to 14790.
It`s worth keeping an eye on the technical levels compiled by Kim.
Factory activity in Japan declined again, services saw its weakest growth this year, German GFK Consumer confidence came even worse than feared at -28.1 vs -26.6 expected but the UK Unemployment rate came better than expected at 4,2% vs 4.3%.
Bitcoin gained 7.5% from yesterday morning on iShares Crypto ETF being listed on it`s website.
Today we are expecting international purchasing manager Indexes and key earnings while the situation requires close monitoring. The election of a new speaker of the house remains stuck , and the trade frictions between the US and China seem to be heating up as can be seen in the Foxconn investigation and export controls.
Key Events this week:
Tuesday
- Data: Australia, Japan, France, Germany, EU, UK, US PMI,
- Earnings Coca Cola, Verizon, GE, 3m; Spotify, GM, Microsoft, Google, Snapchat, Visa, Texas Instruments,
Wednesday
- Data: Australia CPI, DE IFO, Canada Rate decision
- Earnings Boeing, ThermoFischer, T-Mobile, Hilton, General Dynamics, Meta, IBM, Service Now, Mattel,
Thursday
- Data Japan PPI, Turkey Rate decision, ECB Rate Decision, US Durable Goods and GDP Advance,
- Earnings UPS; Northrop Gruman, Merck, Amazon, Intel, Ford,
Friday
- Data US Core PCE, University of Michigan
- Earnings Exxon, Chevron,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
ECOX3 will expire 24 Oct 2023 at 09:00 GMT
OJX3 will expire 24 Oct 2023 at 12:15 GMT
RCX3 will expire 25 Oct 2023 at 09:00 GMT
NGX3 will expire 26 Oct 2023 at 07:30 GMT
TTFMX3 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 09:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
NATGASUSNOV23 will expire 25 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
GASOLINEUSNOV23 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
HEATINGOILNOV23 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
SOYBEANSNOV23 will expire 27 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT