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Morning Brew October 30 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Data, Central Banks and War
Good Morning
Please bear in mind that due to the European Daylight Savings Time change, trading hours are different this week, US Open is at 14:30 CET and Option Expiry for FX at 15:00 CET.
It seems that we are often seeing a delayed reaction to market news at the moment, also in Friday, after the European close, we saw a short-squeeze that drove Gold and Silver higher Friday, evening bringing Gold to above 2000 and Silver back above 23. Right now, Gold is at 1995 and Silver 23.05. The USD Index is trading at 106.50 and the 10 year yield at 4.85. EURUSD is 1.0565, GBPUSD 1.2130 and USDJPY 149.44. It seems the BOJ is active ahead of the BoJ Meeting. Bitcoin remains near 35k.
The US500 is currently trading at 4136,the US30 32530, the Tech 100 NAS at 14270 and the GER40 14700. Last week, all three big US indexes suffered losses of more than 2%. Ford Motors lost 12.2% on Friday, Chevron 6.7% while Intel could add more than 9%.
Peter wrote a strong article on Friday focusing on what is likely to happen it 10 Yields break above the 5% : The interest rate sensitivity is thus dominating over higher growth rates which is likely due to the high equity valuations in US technology stocks. For the short-term trader a break above 5% in the US 10-year yield is thus a significant event because it could trigger new declines in US technology stocks.
Kim takes a look at technicals : Hang Seng Ind / HK50, China A50 and JP225 bouncing from supports
Headlines:
- In the Middle East, fighting intensifies as Israel attacks Hamas in Gaza
- A Reuters Survey showed, three-quarters of over 200 economists see a risk they underestimate inflation- suggesting interest rates will also remain higher for longer.
- The G7 industrial countries will agree a code of conduct for companies developing advanced artificial intelligence systems
- HSBC announced a fresh share buyback and a miss of profitability expectations.
This week will be very busy with Central Bank Decisions, Data, Earnings as well as the war in the middle east. Continue to trade cautiously - It will be very intersting to see where we will be trading in Equities, Rates, Oil, Precious Metals and FX by Friday.
Key Upcoming Events:
Monday
- Data, Sweden GDP, Swiss KOF, DE GDP, EU Consumer Confidence, DE CPI
- Earnings HSBC, SoFi, Pinterest, McDonalds
Tuesday
- Data: Bank of Japan Rate Decision, Unemployment Rate, China Manufacturing PMI, France CPI, EU HICP, EU GDP, Canada GDP, US Consumer Confidence,.
- Earnings AMD, Pfizer, Cat,
Wednesday
- Data International PMI, US Rate Decision
- Earnings Paypal, AirBnB, Qualcom, CVS
Thusday
- Data Germany PMI, Unemployment Rate, Bank of England Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders.
- Earnings Apple, Palantir, Shopify, Coinbase, Starbucks,
Friday
- Data EU Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls
- Earnings Enbridge, RBI,
Expiries
Physically Settled Futures
EMAX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 14:00 GMT
HGX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
RRX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
XKX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
ZSX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
HOX3 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
RBX3 will expire 31 Oct 2023 at 15:00 GMT
Expiring CFDs
CHINA50OCT23 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 02:00 GMT
HK50OCT23 will expire 30 Oct 2023 at 02:00 GMT
OILUKDEC23 will expire 31 Oct 2023 at 16:00 GMT