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Morning Brew October 31 202
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Happy Halloween - Unclear day ahead of the FOMC Tomorrow
Good Morning
The so far relatively moderate development in the middle East are taken as a reason to re-enter positions that were cut into t he weekend, Indexes rose more than 1% , weak Chinese data over night causes a drop again, the PMI fell to contracting levels. Tesla fell to below 200 USD again.
Peter posted an outlook of the key earnings this week: Important earnings week ahead with several hundred of large cap earnings on tap with the three most important earnings releases being Caterpillar (tomorrow), Apple (Thursday) and Novo Nordisk (Thursday). The Q3 earnings season has been acceptable so far with the Nasdaq 100 Index being the clear winner with operating income up 7% from a year ago getting to a new all-time high.
The USD Index is relatively calm at 106.30, EURUSD is back above 1.06 and GBPUSD 1.2146, The Bank of Japan loosened its grip on long-term interest rates by tweaking its bond yield control policy, it also revised up its price forecasts to project inflation well exceeding its 2% target this year and next, confirming that conditions for phasing out ultra-loose monetary policy may be near. Traders are taking the comments to mean that the BoJ is also not likely to act on the strengthening Yen. While we fell to below 149 yesterday, we rose back to above 150.
Gold and Silver traded in large swings yesterday, to currently trade where we were 24 hours ag at 1995 and 23.10. 10 Year Yields are just below 4.90, Bitcoin 34300 and US Crude 82.80.
Key driver today should be the US Consumer Confidence at 15:00 CET, besides that, EU Inflation and GDP at 11:00 will be watched. Earnings by AMD and Pfizer will be closely watched. Also, watch for Month end moves throughout the day.
Our Steen Jacobsen pointed out over night that technically we are approaching levels where the Fed has taken action in the market in the past – when only 20% of S&P500 stocks are trading below the 200 day moving average, the central bank has often taken up the fight.
This coincides with the golden rule to sell in May and go away but remember to come back in November.
Good Luck!
Key Events:
Tuesday
- Data: Bank of Japan Rate Decision, Unemployment Rate, China Manufacturing PMI, France CPI, EU HICP, EU GDP, Canada GDP, US Consumer Confidence,.
- Earnings AMD, Pfizer, Cat,
Wednesday
- Data International PMI, US Rate Decision
- Earnings Paypal, AirBnB, Qualcom, CVS
Thusday
- Data Germany PMI, Unemployment Rate, Bank of England Rate Decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, Factory Orders.
- Earnings Apple, Palantir, Shopify, Coinbase, Starbucks,
Friday
- Data EU Unemployment Rate, Nonfarm Payrolls
- Earnings Enbridge, RBI,