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Morning Brew September 11 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: After the debate is before the CPI…
Good morning.
Markets are on edge even if there is relatively little volatility in the broader indexes. Yesterday the Dow lost 0.23%, the S&P 500 gained 0.45 and the Nasdaq up 0.84%.
Tech stocks were volatile as HP lost -8.5% after announcing a mandatory stock offering to finance an acquisition, Oracle gained 11% on strong earnings. Nvidia gained 1.5% and Tesla 4.6%. Google remains under pressure ad may well look to close the gap in the daily chart to 143.
Goldman Sachs issued a profit warning weighing on Bank shares.
VW ended the employment contract guaranteeing no layoffs and BMW issued a profit warning. The big three car makers account for only 6.5% of the Dax so the impact was smaller than possibly thought.
After the presidential debate, the USD is under pressure and indexes give up ground – the large indexes give up app 0.5% with Japan at -1.6% due to a hawkish BoJ. Taylor Swift endorsed Kamala Harris after the debate and stated her worries about AI. Harris demonstrated a clear advantage over Trump, with her odds of winning increasing to 56%, up from 53% before the debate on PredictIt
10 year yields fell to 3.61 and the USD Index to 101.29, EURUSD is 1.1050, GBPUSD 1.310 and USDJPY 140.80!
Gold and Silver are strong at 2521 and 28.50, Ole wrote on Gold as the real winner of the US election (below)
Oil fell after OPEC cut it`s demand estimate, the US line is 66.11 USD.
Today we are awaiting the last significant input for next week’s FOMC with the US CPI at 14:30, the CPI is expected at 2.6% and the Core at 3.2%. Remember there will be no commentary from Fed speakers due to the Blackout period. Grocery prices in the US fell most since 2014 in August, let`s see if that is a preview!
Ahead of the CPI, we are trading a 65/35 probability of a 25 and a 50 basis point hike.
US Election: will gold win in all scenarios?
- Gold's recent strong performance, with a 20% rise year-to-date and a high of USD 2,531.75 in August, has been driven by a combination of factors that have made it an attractive investment
- Supported among others by the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming US presidential election, which brings intense unease on the course of fiscal policy and overall market stability
- The combination of geopolitical risks, fiscal concerns, and potential shifts in monetary policy, particularly in the wake of the US presidential election, makes a bullish case for gold as a hard asset
Wednesday
- Data UK GDP, US CPI.
- Earnings: Dollarama,,
Thursday
- Data ECB Rate decision, US Initial Jobless Claims & PPI.
Earnings: Adobe, Kroger
Friday
- Data University of Michigan Sentiment