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Morning Brew September 2 2024
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: US Holiday as traders digest the PCE and expect the nonfarm payroll
Good morning,
The PCE Deflator came 0,1% lower than analysts had expected on Friday, this did not convince rate traders to expect a 50 basis point cut in September yet, the odds are slightly lower at 70/30 in favor of 25 bps
This boosted 10 year yields and the USD, to and 101.70, EURUSD ended the week at 1.1047, GBPUSD 1.3125 and USDJPY 146.16. Gold and Silver had one of their bad Friday`s at -0.7% and -2%. This morning , markets are fairly calm except for gold and Silver under pressure.
Equities traded friendly and the large indexes ending the day, week and month in the green. Intel could gain 10% on news it was exploring strategic options, Amazon and Tesla rose more than 3.5%, Nvidia rose off the lows.
So far the PMI releases are showing a decently strong picture, the Japanese at 49.8 show a slower decline while the Chinese broke above the 50 against expectations. Highlights from here are the German (9:55) EU (10:00) UK (10:30)
Hot topics remain largely unchanged, German politics can be added as the AFD celebrated gains in the regional elections. This puts massive pressure on the government to tackle immigration and the Eastern German economy. Ukraine launched massive drone attacks into Russia this weekend and in Israel the discovery of 6 killed hostages heats up sentiment.
Geopolitics, US Elections, the rotation trade and the rate outlook as well as the continuation of the Goldilocks economy will dominate as topics, highlight of the week is likely to be the nonfarm Payroll on Friday.
Key Events September:
02 International PMI
03 International PMI
04 Bank of Canada Rate Decision
05 Germany Industrial Orders
06 EU GDP & US Nonfarm Payrolls
09 Japan GDP, China CPI&PPI
10 China Trade
11 UK GDP & US CPI
12 ECB Rate Decision, US PPI
17 Germany ZEW, Canada CPI, US Retail Sales
18 EU HICP US Rate decision
19 UK BoE Rate Decision
20 China PBOC Rate Decision
23 International PMI
24 Germany IFO Index, US Consumer Confidnce
26 Switzerland SNB Rate Decision,US Durable Goods Orders& GDP
27 US PCE
30 International PMI, Switzerland KOF
This Week:
Monday
- Data Global PMI, US Market holliday
- Earnings:
- Speakers:
Tuesday
- Data Global PMI
- Earnings: Partners Group, Swiss Life
- Speakers:
Wednesday
- Data AU GDP, US International Trade, Bank of Canada, US Factory Orders
- Earnings: Hewlett Packard , Dick’s Sporting, Dollar Tree DocuSign
Speakers: Fed`s Beige book
Thursday
- Data AU Trade, DE Industrial Orders, US Initial Jobless Claims, ISM Manufacutring PMI
- Earnings CVC BNP Paribas Broadcom,
Speakers:
Friday
- Data EU GDP US Nonfarm Payrolls
- Earnings: Williams