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Morning BrewSeptember 21 2023
Erik Schafhauser
Senior Relationship Manager
Summary: Hawkish Pause par excellence!
Good Morning
That was what is defined as a hawkish pause!
The Fed left rates unchanged but projected higher rates along the curve. From a possible hike this year extending to a level half a percentage point above the last projection through 2025 Powell prepared the market for “higher for longer” stating “People hate inflation. Hate it"
Our Steen Jacobsen comments: We still think FED is done, but more importantly FOMC thinks they are done, but.. if they need to act it will be one more hike. “We have NEW sell signals for NASDAQ and SPX with this close. Confirmation on close below tomorrow”
As a market reaction, US Yields rose and the USD Gained, the 2 year yield rose to a 17-year high of 5.197%, 10 years reached 4.43, a 16year high. EURUSD is at 1.0640, Cable 1.2320 and USDJPY 148.40. With the Bank of England up later today and the Bank of Japan early tomorrow, these pairs should be watched closely .
Equities fell with growth and tech stocks suffering the most – as was to be expected. The US500 and the US 30 fell 0.94% and 0.22% respectively, the Nasdaq 100 was pulled 1.5% lower by the heavyweights. Kim issued a special outlook for these yesterday while Peter pointed out how little traders are prepared for adverse moves
Key support in the US 500 is 4340. The GER40 is trading at 15650 with key support at 15482
Arm shares continued to fall and are now trading near their IPO price, Instacart fell to below the IPO level.
Gold and Silver tested resistances at 1950 and 23.50 yesterday but the strong USD after the FOMC caused both precious metals to fall to 1928 and 23.20.
After the low CPI print yesterday, the probability of a hike by the bank of England fell to 50/50 now from a 80% chance in favor of a hike Tuesday. The Japanese are not expected to change their key interest rate but I would expect at least a strong verbal intervention against the weak Yen.
There the current times and probabilities ( Data for the Turkish central bank seems to be conflicting)
- Thursday 9:30 Swiss National Bank 69% for a 25 BPS Hike Followed by News conference
- Thursday 9:30 Riksbank Sweden 63% of a 25 BPS Hike
- Thursday 10:00 Norges Central Bank 99% for 25 BPS Hike, Followed by News conference
- Thursday 13:00Bank of England 40% for 25 BPD Hike & Minutes of the Meeting
- Thursday 13:00Bank of Turkey
- Friday : Bank Of Japan 97% no change
Besides central banks we are looking at the UAW strikes, negotiations around debt ceiling in the US and policy measures in Japan to boost the economy and also likely to stabilize the Yen.
Key Events ahead:
Thursday
- Data Australia GDP. Swiss Sweden, Norway, UK and Turkey rate decision, US Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed and Home Sales,
Friday
- Data Japan CPI, UK Retail Sales, International PMI
Erik