Macro: Sandcastle economics
Invest wisely in Q3 2024: Discover SaxoStrats' insights on navigating a stable yet fragile global economy.
Sales Trader
Summary: Divergence began to appear since last month as both XAU and HG looked to have bottomed out and make multi months swing highs but CL continued to decline making a fresh low for the year breaking the double bottom $75 this week.
My sales trading team members well and truly know that I am a fan boy of Cathie Wood whose flagship fund ARKK generated huge 149% return in 2020 but this year so far YTD return of -64% on the back of QT and challenging macro backdrop as real yield soared from -1% all the way upto 1.59%, highest since 2009. I remember this tweet from Cathie that flagged the inflation expectations by looking at commodities such as gold (XAU), copper (HG) and oil (CL) which were already on their way down after all three peaking in March 22 while CPI peaked later in July at 9.1%. However divergence began to appear since last month as both XAU and HG looked to have bottomed out and make multi months swing highs but CL continued to decline making a fresh low for the year breaking the double bottom $75 this week. On the other hand, silver (XAG) and iron ore (SCO) are also showing reversal to the topside with +32% and +49% respectively so in line with the recent house view from Steen, resurgence of major commodity strength may have already begun in the anticipation of China reopening.
Some findings