Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Global Head of Macro Strategy
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Technical Update - Crude oil struggling for momentum. Gasoline breaking falling trendline. Natural gas powering higher
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Brent Crude oil is struggling to get upside momentum following the bottom and reversal Hammer candle 2 weeks ago. However, if Brent can close above $107.70 it has confirmed a short-term uptrend. Next obstacles are the rising (black) trendline and the 0.618 retracement at 113.52.
To reverse the rebound picture still under development a close below 96.75 id needed.
WTI crude oil is struggling more than Brent having tested the key support at around $92.93 twice. A close above 105.24 is needed for confirmation of a short-term uptrend. However, 55 and 100 SMA’s are coming down likely putting a damper on a potential rise. We could see a period of sideways range trading in oil.
Gasoline is at the time of writing trading above its short-term falling trend line after bouncing from support at around $300. RSI showing divergence indicating a reversal. If Gasoline closes above 350 it is likely to establish an uptrend that can take it to the 0.618 retracement at 382.
If Gasoline closes below 298 the rebound scenario is reversed
Sellers in Dutch TTF gas tried last week to push the price below key support at €152 only for buyers to take immediate control resulting in Dutch gas to close above the support. 152 support is too strong.
Dutch gas is set for higher prices and is likely to reach 229 possibly 242 within 1-2 weeks. If gas prices break above its upper rising trendline prices could accelerate. Key resistance seems to be around $205-214.50.
Henry Hub gas is going ballistic breaking all potential Fibonacci retracement levels. Henry Hub is on course to test June highs around $9.66 where from a correction is not unlikely. However, there are no signs of divergence on RSI indicating new highs are likely.
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