Quarterly Outlook
Macro outlook: Trump 2.0: Can the US have its cake and eat it, too?
John J. Hardy
Chief Macro Strategist
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: Gold strong rebound but hit strong resistance
Silver back above 22.15 but will struggling for further upside
Copper testing key strong support at 354.50.
Gold XAUUSD rebounded strongly last week to the upper falling trendline and the 200 Moving Average.
RSI is has closed above 60 threshold thereby in positive sentiment indicating likely higher Gold prices.
If Gold is closing above the Cloud area (shaded area) there is strong indication of Gold to move higher.
A close above 1,947 will confirm bullish trend with resistance at around 1,985
If Gold is sliding back below 1,870 downtrend is likely to resume.
Silver XAGUSD is medium-term in a downtrend after closing below the lower rising trend line – weekly chart.
Now back above 22.15 Silver is trying to build an uptrend.
For Silver to establish an uptrend a close above 23.77 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out could be that the weekly RSI, which is still showing positive sentiment, closes above its falling trendline.
If Silver slides back below 22.15 selling pressure could return and increase pushing Silver to lower levels. Possibly down to 19.90 level.
Copper is once again testing key support at 354.50. If closing below it could fuel a sell-off lower with no support until around 323-313
On the medium-term (weekly chart) Copper has closed below its lower rising trendline thus broken bearish out of its Triangle like pattern. Copper is now in a downtrend both short- and medium-term.
To reverse the Bearish trend a clsoe above 382.20 is needed.