Quarterly Outlook
Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
Summary: AEX25/NETH25 breaking key resistance paving the way for a move to all-time highs
BEL20/BELG20 testing resistance. Is it building uptrend?
CAC40/FRA40 seems likely to test strong resistance area. A close above will confirm uptrend
AEX25 is at the time of writing above key resistance at 770 breaking bullish out of its Ascending triangle like pattern. RSI is back above 60 meaning if closing above uptrend is confirmed.
Bullish break out of the triangle pattern paves the way for a move towards all-time high at around 828.
That level is also the 1.764 projection of the peak to trough of the triangle
To reverse this bullish picture a close below 748 is needed. First indication of that scenario to play out would be a break of the lower rising trendline.
NETH25 cfd likely to test 777 peak.
BELG20 cfd:
CAC40 is likely to test gap area 7,352-7,379. If closing above 7,379 and RSI closing above 60 uptrend has been confirmed with a likely move higher to follow. All-time high at 7,581 could be tested with in a couple of weeks.
If failing to break higher and RSI is also rejected at 60 CAC 40 could slide back lower. RSI breaking below its rising trendline could be first warning signal of downtrend resuming.
FRA40 cfd resistance at 7,356 and RSI 60 are key.