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Fixed Income Outlook: Bonds Hit Reset. A New Equilibrium Emerges
Althea Spinozzi
Head of Fixed Income Strategy
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Technical Update - Airbus soaring above the clouds. Boeing in turbulence. Any sign of tailwind ahead?
Kim Cramer Larsson
Technical Analyst, Saxo Bank
- Boeing's recent price action includes a Bullish Engulfing pattern, indicating potential reversal, but the subsequent bearish candle suggests caution. The troubled plane maker could very well be hit with more selling pressure pushing Boeing to test key support at 176.25
- Airbus shares have outperformed Boeing recently, but indicators suggest a potential for a correction.
Despite high RSI levels and recent Doji candles, the absence of divergence means the uptrend could persist, with key support levels identified for any pullback
On March 20th, Boeing exhibited a Bullish Engulfing pattern, signaling a potential reversal after testing significant support between 177.73 and 176.25. Despite this positive indicator, a bearish candle formed yesterday, casting doubt on the sustainability of the reversal.
For a more definitive bullish signal, Boeing needs to close above yesterday's high of 196.18, targeting the resistance at approximately 198.32. Overcoming this resistance could pave the way to stronger resistance levels between 215.16 and 217.70.
A daily closure above 217.70 would solidify a bullish outlook in both the short and medium term. The RSI's behavior is also pivotal; a close above the 60 threshold would indicate positive sentiment, supporting the potential for further upside.
Conversely, if Boeing fails to surpass 198.32, it may revisit the support zone between 177.73 and 176.25, challenging the validity of the recent bullish pattern.
The weekly chart emphasizes the critical nature of the 176.25 support level. Breaching this support could trigger a sell-off, with the next substantial support not until around 121, aside from a minor support at 141.88. This level aligns with the 1.382 Fibonacci projection from the October 2023 to March 2024 peak to trough, with the 1.618 projection nearing the September 2022 low at 121.
Airbus has shown stronger performance compared to Boeing over the past few months, but current short-term indicators suggest the uptrend may be overstretched.
With the RSI above 80, signaling overbought conditions, and recent Doji candles indicating indecision, there's a hint that a reversal could be imminent. However, the lack of divergence in the RSI suggests that the stock could still have room to climb.
Should Airbus encounter a negative trading day following the "indecision" days, it will have formed a top and reversal pattern, with the lower rising trendline expected to be tested in such a scenario.
Key support levels at around 159.32 and 152.20.
In the medium term (weekly chart), Airbus is approaching the 100% Extension of the Q4 2022 to Q3 2023 uptrend at 172.52, suggesting trend exhaustion and a correction might be near.
If the RSI clsoes below its lower rising trendline, it could signal the start of this correction. Yet, with no RSI divergence observed even on the weekly chart, the potential for higher trading levels after a correction remains.
How much higher can Airbus fly?
The "Linton Price Target" Indicator points towards a target of 177, which is nearly reached. Any correction followed by a resumption of the uptrend could lead to a recalibration of this target.
(The Linton Price Target Indicator is developed by Updata Analytics and is based on Point&Figure charting and Fibonacci ratios)
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